Brian M Downing
The Syrian war drags on, and so do the atrocities. Rebel fighters are not armies of right and virtue by any means but that cannot be used to look past the government side’s deliberate and systematic attacks on civilians. Syrian and Russian aircraft have incorporated heavy bombing of rebel-held urban districts into their war doctrines.
Such strikes reduce government casualties in their effort to retake as much of the country as possible. It worked on Aleppo, it’s working on Ghouta. Syria also intermittently uses chemical weapons on civilians, undoubtedly with Putin’s consent.
The world objects, though only faintly. The same is true of Israel, even though the plight of people trapped in a city district, facing death, sometimes by gas, resonates with many of its citizens. The fate of Syrian civilians is less important to PM Netanyahu than a single Iranian drone entering Israeli airspace.
Israeli action
Opposition leader Isaac Herzog, son of an Israeli general, recently noted, “[A]s a Jewish state, we must raise our eyes beyond our immediate borders and interests, and recognize the humanitarian and not only strategic dimensions of the Syrian conflict.” (Jerusalem Post, March 10 2018) However, Herzog goes on to argue for joint US-Russian action on Syria. This simply isn’t forthcoming and it ignores Israel’s capacity for swift and decisive action. Ghouta, after all, is 50 kms from Israel.
PM Netanyahu can insist on an immediate cessation of airstrikes and the use of chemical weapons on civilian targets, especially around Damascus and Idlib. Further, he can see that the Syrian side respects his demand. The IDF has already demonstrated, on numerous occasions, its ability to strike inside Syria. Israeli fighters have delivered air support for rebel groups, struck Hisbollah targets, and seriously degraded, in a matter of hours, its air-defense system.
Failure to abide would lead to further actions: destroying Syrian jets and helicopters, delivering tactical air support to rebel groups, and destroying Syrian and Iranian military assets. Israeli planes, pilots, ECMs, and weapons have proven their superiority to Syria’s in 1967, 1973, the Bekaa Valley engagements of 1982, and earlier this year. Israeli actions would not be costly.
Israel would benefit from decisive action. The campaign would reestablish the country’s commitment to the founders’ moral vision. Strategic ties with Sunni partners such as Saudi Arabia would be strengthened. Syria would be weaker and even further away from reconstituting itself as an integral state capable of exercising power in the region. And of course Iran will have to shoulder greater expenses in a war many of its people deem wasteful.
Russia
America has refrained from protecting Syrian civilians because it would lead to greater conflict with Russia in the Baltic, Central Europe, and elsewhere. Israel would also risk a Russian response but not a significant one.
Russia relies on Israel for technology and cannot risk having to make do with less sophisticated military equipment. Russia sells oil in return but any cutoff would be made up for by the US, Kurdistan, and Gulf states. Russia can ill afford a reduction in export earnings.
If the two countries came to blows in Syria, Russia would be embarrassed. It cannot match the IDF in quantity or quality in the region. Nor would a feasible escalation of Russian forces into the region change the calculus.
Why is Netanyahu showing so much (uncharacteristic) forbearance while atrocities go on daily and Syrian power increases? He may want to avoid antagonizing Putin because he hopes to convince him to isolate Hisbollah from Iran, thereby greatly relieving concern in the north. While this is an important strategic goal, continued inaction in Syria erodes longstanding though frail norms regarding warfare – and Israel’s founding principles too.
Copyright 2018 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.
“The campaign would reestablish the country’s commitment to the founders’ moral vision.”
Oh, please! Your comment would be accurate without the word “moral”. Israel has always been a land grabber, a thief, and stands convicted of such before the UN and even the most cursory study of history starting with the Old Testament.
Of course, being the (self-)”Chosen People” allows them to do this with moral impunity.
Their founders knew exactly what they were doing and had the long view to hegemony in the Middle East.
The moral vision I refer to, perhaps overly obliquely, is the principle of preventing mass murder. Netanyahu invokes the Holocaust at every opportunity but does nothing about Ghouta and the use of chemical weapons. This is perplexing because he is eager to attack more and more Syrian/Iranian/Hisbollah targets.