Brian M Downing
Last month, the Maduro government appeared to be on the way out. Millions of Venezuelans were hungry and demonstrating angrily in the streets. Juan Guadio, a prominent opponent, declared himself interim president and urged his fellow Venezuelans, especially officers and soldiers, to rally to his side. Foreign governments, including the US, supported him. The results were disappointing. Maduro is still in charge and beginning a crackdown on Guadio and his supporters.
Russia has long supported Chavez and Maduro. In recent months, it’s been deploying security forces. The numbers are only a few hundred but they bolstered Maduro’s confidence and audacity by providing reliable bodyguards and intimidating the opposition. Putin’s troops are good at that. Ask any Ukrainian.
Earlier this week President Trump called for a Russian withdrawal and indicated that all options were on the proverbial table. Venezuela finds itself in the middle of Cold War Two. The conflict’s previous phase saw numerous missteps. This one could too, unless a longterm approach is taken.
Theaters in the war
President Putin uses his military to restore Russia’s place in world affairs and maintain his public support. His most notable successes of course are in the Crimea and Syria. Russian planes and ships buzz US and allied forces in the Baltic and Black Seas. Washington rotates troops in and out of Eastern Europe, arms the Ukraine, and holds ground in eastern Syria – a country Putin wants restored to its prewar boundaries.
In Latin America, Putin wants to solidify a bloc comprising Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. This in turn will serve as a basis for encouraging emerging anti-US countries to move toward Moscow for arms, subsidies, and diplomatic support. China figures in this. It too extends loans and develops oil fields. And of course both Moscow and Beijing want to weaken Washington wherever possible.
The US response
Thwarted in ousting Maduro last month, the Trump administration is weighing actions. Possible actions include reducing oil imports from Venezuela, supporting an insurgency (possibly with arms), directing special forces ops, and coordinating an invasion with help from Brazil and Colombia. But any action will have an equal and highly opposite Russian reaction.
A more skillful and patient policy should be considered. The Venezuelan economy continues to falter as Maduro and Chavez placed loyalists rather than experts in charge of the national oil industry. The government is deeply unpopular and resorting to harsher measures to keep the public in line. Popular animosities will worsen in time – and focus on Maduro’s foreign backers in Russia and China.
The state oil industry may come under increased Chinese supervision as boosting exports is vital to the regime. China has extended so many loans that fields and infrastructure may fall into Beijing’s growing overseas portfolio. China’s loan terms often stipulate that and that’s one reason for its growing unpopularity in Africa and Asia.
Venezuelan culture is highly sensitive to foreign intervention. Passions have historically been directed against the US. “Yankee go home” was a veritable national motto. The present crisis may serve to redirect nationalist passions against Russia and China. Their security forces and engineers will be despised and vulnerable to kidnappings and attacks. Criminal activity may evolve into insurgency. “Ivan go home.”
China and Russia may be forced to sink more and more money into Venezuela. China can afford it, Russia can’t. More troops may follow as well.
A skillful and patient policy might not be readily adopted. The administration has shown the door to several seasoned figures such as Rex Tillerson, James Mattis, HR McMaster, and John Kelly. The replacements are alumni of the school of thought that promised swift and remarkable results from going into Afghanistan and Iraq. They have the president’s ear.
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.