Brian M Downing
Putin’s blitzkrieg has failed. Large-scale armored thrusts couldn’t take Kiev or Kharkiv and have met with only limited success along the Black Sea. He doesn’t have a Guderian or Rommel to boldly implement his orders, only a Keitel and Jodl to dutifully click their heels.
The situation
Russia is reallocating troops to the Donbas. Owing to poor logistics, it will take several weeks for them to reach positions. Ukrainian special forces would do well to blow up bridges and railroads on the journey. Unknown but probably indigenous forces in Belarus are already doing that.
The new priority is establishing and solidifying a land bridge linking Russian territory with the Crimean peninsula. Odessa may be next. Taking the renowned port would make Ukraine landlocked and vulnerable. Russia would be well positioned to initiate another effort to conquer Ukraine in a few years. Foreign policy is a long game.
The talks
Meanwhile, Kiev and Moscow continue to signal willingness to seek an end to the war. The Russians may call for a ceasefire. It may sound like a welcome gesture but it would only buy time for Russian troops to rest and shift to the Donbas for more destruction.
The prospects
Ukrainian forces must not relent. They should continue to attrit Russian troops with raids, artillery, drones, snipers, sabotage, and propaganda on all fronts. They would do well to drive to the Black Sea, perhaps near Mariupol. This will split Russian forces in the south and tempt them to begin a major battle. The fight would greatly wear down Russian troops.
Ukrainian forces are well-positioned to inflict great damage not only on frontline troops but on the entire Russian military stretching back to Moscow, gravely damaging Putin’s standing.
Most armies cultivate rapport between officers and the rank and file and have NCOs to bridge the divide. Russian officers eschew rapport and don’t have NCO cadres. The war is widening the divide. Casualties are high, supplies sparse, hope for victory dim, and officers inept.
Mistrust is developing between mid-level commanders of battalions and divisions on the one hand and general officers. The latter show no initiative, imagination, or concern for casualties. Mid-level officers recognize systemic rottenness from doctrines, training, weapons acquisition, intelligence, promotions, and obsequiousness toward rulers. The rot was tolerable while in garrison, not so in Ukraine. They may look back on the Decembrists who tried to reform a moribund, aristocratic-run army long ago.
Tensions are building between top military figures and the autocracy. Putin has shown appalling judgment on the war and international response. He once described the fall of the Soviet Union as an immense geopolitical disaster. He’s bringing about a reprise. The military is nearing exhaustion and will need years to recover. The generals may sense a purge is nearing and fear for their jobs, if not their necks. After all, Putin admires Stalin.
Kiev and the West are looking for signs of unrest among Putin’s subjects. His popularity rests on having restored prosperity and standing. Both are in danger of falling in coming months. Sizable protests take place in many cities under the watchful eyes of security forces who swoop in to make arrests when lines are crossed. Thus far security forces don’t hesitate. Casualties continue and the draft may go deeper into the public. A levee comes this week. More will come.
Kiev will gauge the damage the war is inflicting on Russia’s army and autocracy before entering serious negotiations, painful though every day is for its brave citizens. They can break the Russian army and perhaps its autocracy as well. Only then will Ukraine be secure.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.