Brian M Downing
The Ukrainian offensive has been on for close to three month. Gains around Bakhmut are incremental. Those in the land bridge faced layers of minefields but are now making significant advances toward the coast. In recent days Ukraine has begun an air campaign on Russian territory. Hundreds of drones have struck Russian airfields and cities, including Moscow. Ukraine has brought the war into Russia.
The warheads are relatively small and don’t compare to the large ones destroying civilian areas in Kyiv, Odessa, and Kramatorsk. What are the drone campaign’s objectives?
One objective is to break public support for the war and force negotiations. This isn’t likely a major aim as deaths and damage are small in scale. According to the US Strategic Bombing Survey conducted after WW2, the devastating bombings of Berlin, Tokyo, and Dresden didn’t weaken resolve. In fact, they increased it in civilians and soldiers alike as they wanted vengeance. This will be paralleled in Russians as most understand the war as another foreign invasion and a reprise of the Great Patriotic War whose memory dwells in every family. (Greater threats to support are another winter without signs of progress and growing doubts about official casualty figures.)
A second objective is to reduce war production. This was perhaps the primary aim of allied bombing in WW2 and the USSBS determined that it too fell short. German war production continued to rise until early 1945 when the industrial heartland was encircled by allied troops in Operation Varsity. Ukraine’s endeavor might be somewhat successful as Russian production is already hurt by sanctions and sabotage – the latter done by Ukrainian special forces and possibly Russian actors as well. Furthermore, these strikes are far more precise than allied bombing was, especially nighttime ones.
Third, the campaign will divert Russian air defenses from Ukraine, especially the land bridge, or limit more deployments there. Moscow is embarrassed by strikes on the capital, some near the Kremlin. and will take steps to reduce the numbers getting through.
Fourth, and probably most importantly, the drones will increase conflict between Putin and his generals. The Ukrainians are shooting down more incoming Russian drones than the more advanced Russian systems are against their targets. Blame will not fall on decades of corruption, it will fall on a slew of generals – and quite hard. Firings, demotions, and “accidents” are on the way. This will bring even more fear and instability in the chain of command and weaken the war effort.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.