Brian M Dowing
Today’s populism isn’t a cult. It’s a broad-based movement that’s grown in numbers and vitality over the last fifty years. Pollsters and social scientists for the most part missed it, though anyone who saw Arbitron and Nielsen’s radio ratings knew something was up. Politicians and academics and swathes of the public presumed the followers would accept the progressive tide, perhaps hold fast in rural redoubts, but never become a potent force in national politics.
The movement made itself known in 2016 and regrouped after 2020. More organized and energized than ever, it’s confident it will win this fall. Followers believe in restoring a true America but leaders have something else in mind and only hint at it. They want to weaken democracy and build a majoritarian or authoritarian form of government. Future fair elections will be guarded against. A new democracy – a new American state – is at hand.
The new state
Donald Trump may well retake the presidency this fall and bring along majorities, albeit slim ones, in both Houses. This presents the easiest path to the new American state, though a tougher, violent one is also possible. Trump loyalists, including family members, have been positioned in the party apparatus. Many figures railed against him over the years, endured personal insults, swore to oppose him, but most have come back to the fold. Others have left Washington.
Trump’s political base is strong and sees the opportunity to restore America. But majorities can be short-lived and unreliable. Disappointments, economic downturns, and scandals can bring change and derail the agenda. Firmer control is needed.
Unreliable strata in the civil service must be ousted and replaced with properly-disposed professionals. The program to suppress unwelcome voters must be expanded to the point of widespread discouragement. Precinct chiefs must be diligently investigated to ensure correct outcomes. Democratic machinery will appear to be functioning as before, just more smoothly, more predictably, and for the benefit of America.
The new ideology
A new regime requires justifications. They’ve already been expressed in the campaign and dutiful media – and they’ve resonated with much of the public.
The opposition stole the last election – a heinous violation of American traditions that calls for extraordinary countermeasures. The opposition has used the state to punish the movement and the tables will be turned.
The present system isn’t working. Washington is plagued by interminable bickering. Politicians place party over country and bow to special interests. A new order will profess to rise above this and govern in the name of the people.
The opposition for years has been imposing its extreme beliefs on the American people: objectionable historical understandings, extreme principles of equality, post-modern norms governing human relations and gender identities. It’s essential to roll back this tide and protect longstanding American ideals.
Law and order is breaking down and a firmer hand is needed. Most police forces are on board. Behind them are tens of thousands of irregular troops standing by across the nation.
Social spending must be reined in. The national debt is reaching a critical
point where interest payments are making budgets unmanageable. Extraordinary measures must be taken now for the sake of the nation and future generations.
* * *
The new ideology will be eagerly embraced by the religious right and partisan loyalists who’ve watched decades of baleful change. Dutiful media will scoff at claims of endangered democracy, decry unpatriotic opposition, and proclaim the coming of a more perfect union. Many politicians will see new career opportunities. Young people, whose formations have instilled little respect for political institutions, may be less eager to embrace the shift but nonetheless willing to accept change or at least not stand up against it.
©2024 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.