Brian M Downing
Candidate Trump campaigned on leaving the JCPOA and taking an aggressive stance toward Iran. President Trump has indeed left the JCPOA, reimposed sanctions, and supported Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in Syria. Nonetheless, last summer he pulled back from launching strikes on Iran, which National Security Advisor Bolton supported but his generals opposed.
Bolton’s Iran policy was based on a belligerent temperament and a long career with think tanks, media outlets, and publications dedicated to Persia delenda est. Those organizations are scurrying to see that his replacement is no less committed to their policies.
Perhaps a new National Security Advisor can help bring new thinking toward the Middle East, especially Iran. Perhaps the slew of Democratic hopefuls might discuss a fresh approach in a debate. There are clear and present advantages to walking away from the anti-Iran stance and attempting a rapprochement.
Restoring relations with allies
Great powers have strong allies. Washington has shown disregard for international agreements and made accusations regarding Iran’s nuclear program that are not substantiated by the UN, IAEA, Israeli intelligence, or the CIA for that matter. A case for war has been built on nothing more than repeated claims by the Persia delenda est network.
Many allies in South and East Asia rely on hydrocarbons from the Persian Gulf. They do not want price hikes, reduced supplies, or interference with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
European and other countries are irked by US sanctions which make trade with a country of 75 million difficult if not impossible. They are trying to establish a new money transfer system that will get around US sanctions. This could weaken the dollar and take a step in the direction of ending the dollar system.
The present policy isn’t consistent with making American great again.
Solicitousness toward Saudi Arabia
The Gulf has always had tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran but the US had good ties with both and managed to prevent conflict. Washington even managed to benefit from arms sales to both sides. The Khomeini revolution of 1979 ended US influence in Iran and sharpened conflict with the Sunnis, chiefly Saudi Arabia. The US, eager to keep influence in the Gulf, had to become more mindful of Saudi wishes.
The US has been dragged into Saudi policies aimed at ousting Assad in Syria and crushing the Houthis in Yemen. Neither conflict bears forcefully on US security interests. The Syrian war is a lost cause but Yemen drags on with thousands of civilian lives lost and pressures mounting for more US help. Great powers are not led about by lesser ones.
The US is forced to look the other way while crown prince Mohammad bin Salman crushes dissent, further ensconces his coterie in key positions, and imprisons or murders critics. Perhaps most appalling, the US is considering helping him with nuclear reactors – this in a kingdom with determined Islamist militants and serious security problems.
Rapprochement with Iran would allow the US to better manage regional tensions and pressure the House of Saud not being more open to reform. After all, the kingdom is far less open than its rival across the Gulf.
Iran’s disposition
In the lead up to the JCPOA deal and continuing after it, the mullahs and generals were puzzlingly hostile to the US. Rapprochement with Obama administration wasn’t in the cards. The view here is that Iran calculated that the Persia delenda est network is so powerful that it would inevitably control foreign policy every decade or so. Hence, longterm reconciliation is impossible. The 2016 election and its aftermath offered no contradictory evidence.
However, Tehran may look further into political trends in this country and see conservatives enjoying an Indian summer before receding into a permanent minority, like the Liberals in Britain and the Socialists in France. The mullahs and generals might also question the reliability of their present allies in Moscow who are sidling up with Sunni princes and may see alliances with them as more lucrative than existing ones with the smaller branch of Islam.
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President Trump enjoys confusing and annoying people and he’s remarkably good at it. He may see America being used by Middle Eastern powers who despise it. He may also see a respected place in history by becoming the president who annoyed and stood up to powerful interests that have saddled predecessors for decades and mired us in senseless conflicts.
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.