Brian M Downing
The Trump foreign policy team came to power amid growing competition between the US and a Sino-Russian alignment. That alignment is determined to reduce American power in the world and replace it with their own. The competition has been underway since China emerged as an economic power and Russia recovered from the USSR’s collapse in 1991. It will go on for decades.
The administration has made common cause with Saudi Arabia and Israel to weaken Iran and perhaps break it apart along regional lines. Russia and China are countering the campaign. They have several tools at their disposal. The White House foreign policy team might not adequately recognize it though.
Iran in Russian and Chinese strategy
Russia has supplanted the US as Iran’s chief ally. It did not happen immediately after the Shah was expelled and Khomeini came in. Moscow was behind Iraq at the time and backed it in the long war of the 1980s. Since then, Russia has sought to expand its influence and arms sales throughout the Gulf. Iran is now solidly in the Russian camp. Most of its major weapon systems are Russian. Moscow sees Iran as a springboard for greater regional influence – on both sides of the Gulf, both sides of the Shia-Sunni dispute.
China buys copious amounts of Iran’s oil. Its goods are everywhere in the bazaars of Tehran. Mashad, and Shiraz. China also buys oil from Saudi Arabia and the smaller Sunni states in the Gulf. Beijing, then, has good relations on both sides of the Gulf and is positioned to work with Moscow to expand influence in the region.
Russia and China will not allow the US to impose its will on Iran. They will not look on as it’s gravely weakened or even fragmented.
US sanctions
Russia and China will try to help Iran get around the sanctions the US has imposed. Easier said than done, even at a time of China’s ascendance in the global economy. Tankers laden with Iranian crude may turn off GPS beacons and come to ports in East Asia. Transactions could try to elide the dollar system b using alternate and clandestine exchanges such as INSTEX – a system created by European states to facilitate trade with Iran.
Getting around sanctions will be difficult in the short-term. The US can strike back at European allies that defy its sanctions. Longer-term, however, Russia and China may be pleased to see the US undermining the strength of the dollar in global trade.
Diplomacy
The international community pressed Iran to ink the JCPOA in 2015. It does not believe US claims of Iran’s violation and views the growing conflict with dismay. Germany and Qatar, both of which host large US military bases, are trying to calm things.
Russia and China are already benefiting as the world sees the US has walked away from another major treaty, shown disregard for the concerns of its allies, and brought more conflict and instability to the Gulf.
Moscow and Beijing may act more forthrightly in the diplomatic sphere, perhaps pressing Iran to further reduce its centrifuge count and enriched-uranium levels, allow greater access to IAEA inspections, and halt its tests of medium-range missiles. The move would win broad international support and further damage the US’s standing, especially if it rejected Iran’s concessions.
Military moves
Much can be done short of force. Arms sales to Iran could signal strengthening support. It would also position Russian and Chinese personnel near key installations such as radar installations and airbases – likely early targets of a US air campaign.
Selling Iran sophisticated “shipkiller” cruise missiles would greatly alarm the Pentagon, though not necessarily the White House. These missiles go supersonic in the final stage, making them extremely difficult to destroy. The navy feels it has upgraded the SeaRAM system to deal with the threat but it hasn’t proven itself in combat. Russia pointedly demonstrated the range of its cruise missiles in 2016 when it fired a salvo of them from a ship in the Caspian Sea to targets in Syria, a distance of 900 miles.
Support can be demonstrated by pinprick probes in various parts of the world. Last week a Russian destroyer deliberately closed on an American warship in the Philippine Sea, almost colliding with it. The incident might not have been related to Iran but similar brushes could take place in the Baltic Sea or Black Sea or near waters claimed by China. Russia could deploy more troops and weaponry to Venezuela. N Korea could resume troubling missile tests, perhaps with Beijing’s approval.
Russian military aircraft used an Iranian airbase to strike targets inside Syria. It was a brief show of force as the squadron was soon withdrawn. But it demonstrated Russia’s capability of swift deployments and Iran’s willingness to host foreign troops. Iranians, from humble villagers to ruling elite, do not like foreign troops own their soil – a legacy of Russian and British occupations during the world wars. However, if foreign troops could deter a US attack, Iranians might rethink the matter, especially as it would demonstrate the strength of its allies and the limits of America.
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.