Brian M Downing
Ties between Moscow and Damascus go back to the early Cold War. The Soviet Union sought to expand its power, and weaken the US’s, by backing secular states such as Syria and Egypt. It sold them military equipment, built infrastructure, and backed them in wars against Israel. Egypt broke with Russia in the early 70s. Russia has backed Syria to the hilt to retain influence in the region.
More recently, Moscow has increased its regional influence by partially detaching Turkey from NATO and forging trade deals with Israel. Sensing distraction if not weakness in Russia amid the Ukraine war, Ankara and Jerusalem, independently, are causing trouble for Moscow in Syria.
Israel
Russia has heretofore accepted occasional Israeli attacks on IRGC and Hisbollah positions in Syria. Assad’s requests for help have gone unanswered. When he asked for more sophisticated air defenses, Moscow said they weren’t necessary. Iran’s requests for more vigorous responses have also been ignored.
Israeli attacks inside Syria have gone up since the Ukraine war began. Putin has been openly critical and Russian-operated air defenses recently lit up Israeli jets. Significantly, however, they did not fire on the planes.
Putin’s hands are tied. His oil makes its way to the Red Sea and markets in Asia and Africa by way of an Israeli pipeline. Israel supplies hi-tech, including some with military use such as the Orlan drones. If his air defenses in Syria were to hit Israeli aircraft, the IDF would respond quickly and disproportionately, perhaps on the Russian naval facility at Tartus or the Latakia airfield. Escalation would not favor Moscow.
Turkey
Russia and Turkey have been hostile for centuries. Conflicts go back to the time of the tsars and the Ottomans. However, Erdogan, eager to expand his power, began triangulating between Washington and Moscow. Each power had to respect Ankara for fear of losing out to its geopolitical rival.
Erdogan, as noted in a previous article, has taken advantage of Putin’s preoccupation with the Ukraine war to encourage Azerbaijan to renew hostilities against Russian-backed Armenia. Turkish troops are biting off more Syrian territory, further deteriorating its sovereignty. Russia has heretofore looked the other way and even supported Turkish troops south of the border.
Russia cannot press Turkey on the matter. That could lead to closer ties with NATO and stronger Turkish support to Ukraine. Russian warships have already been banned from transiting from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea and further restrictions could fall into place. Russia’s military bases in Libya and Syria and indeed its entire standing in North Africa and the Middle East would be endangered. Russia might have to be content in knowing that Erdogan’s Syrian policies also weaken the US and its allies in Syria.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.