Brian M Downing
The US is trying to oust Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro from power. Though the US presently has little goodwill around the world, the effort has broad international support as Maduro’s government is becoming as repressive as it is incompetent. Several countries in and out of the region are calling for Maduro to step down. Some have recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido. A few Venezuelan officers have come out against Maduro but they have not brought over any battalions and Maduro has not lost control of his army.
Why is the Trump administration determined to change Venezuela’s government? There’s no shortage of humanitarian reasons for doing so but a nonpartisan analyst may be forgiven for not readily attaching them to the administration’s foreign policy team. They, after all, support Mohammad bin Salman and his war in Yemen.
The Venezuelan effort has broader geopolitical significance. Successful or not, it will make S America more important in world affairs.
Cherchez l’huile
“Petro-determinists” point to Venezuela’s oil reserves, the world’s largest, and close off inquiry. It’s an oil grab plain and simple, as with the Iraq war. But the US is already buying copious amounts of Venezuela’s oil on the open market which is far easier and less problematic than seizing it. Overt American ownership of reserves and infrastructure would not work. The population, including Maduro’s supporters and enemies alike, will not allow a takeover.
Venezuelan production has been falling for several years now. It isn’t because of dwindling reserves or falling demand. The Chavez and Maduro governments have failed to invest in oil infrastructure. Crude is highly corrosive and eats up wellheads, pipelines, water separation plants, and harbor terminals. Corroding infrastructure means falling production. That’s Oil 101. The head of Exxon/Mobil knows it, every Venezuelan knows it now too.
American oil-service companies stand to benefit from infrastructure investments, which will come one day regardless of who’s in charge, but it hardly seems a major factor running through the corridors of power in Washington.
Demonstration of American power
Neoconservatives have played important if not decisive roles in several administrations since 1980 and they’ve frequently supported demonstrations of American power. Some are related to national security, others simply show American might and will. The quick, small wars in Grenada (1983) and Panama (1989-90) fall in the later category. They rallied popular support for wars in the post-Vietnam era.
The Trump administration has alienated many Neo-cons such as Max Boot and Eliot Cohen but the movement’s influence is nonetheless present. To wit the Iran policy. Ousting Maduro would signal many countries, perhaps Iran, Nicaragua, and Cuba in particular, that the US is able to depose governments.
Russia and China
Under Chavez and Maduro, Venezuela has moved closer to Russia and China. Each has invested in the country’s economy and propped up the government with loans and subsidies. Russia has sent military aircraft to show the flag over the years and more recently beefed up Maduro’s security detail with Russian mercenaries.
Deposing Maduro would embarrass Russia and China and cost them billions of dollars in write-offs. Further, it would weaken an emerging alignment of countries that are antagonistic toward the US – Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua.
However, deposing Maduro, embarrassing Russia and China, and weakening Cuba and Nicaragua will not be without consequences. It will bring firmer ties among those four powers, especially in the form of arms sales, training missions, and showing the flag with fighters and ships.
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.