Brian M Downing
Most observers think Putin cannot benefit from a long war. His economy is burdened by sanctions, the army has taken egregious casualties, and significant offensive operations are out of reach. However, Putin looks to Stalin not RAND and he may see promise where others do not. He’s convinced Western states will become more divided and reduce support to Ukraine. Germany backs Kyiv but lingering guilt from Barbarossa and unreflecting pacifism hover over the public. France provides some arms but meekly calls for dialog. Disputes over Ukrainian refugees and grain have already made Poland reconsider military aid.
Putin’s most promising hope is across the Atlantic. If Washington’s support falters, so will NATO’s and Ukrainian resolve will weaken as casualties mount and cities burn. Putin and Xi are mindful of this. Their hopes may invite exaggeration though.
Antiwar sentiment
The Cold War lasted decades and Russia came out the loser. It lost defensive buffers, the empire of the tsars, and prestige in the world. Putin swiftly determined to exact vengeance. He knows America’s steadfastness in the Cold War drew from a reservoir of patriotism and dedication from victories over Japan and Germany. He also knows the reservoir has receded and replenishment isn’t coming. He may be right.
Decades of prosperity and consumerism eroded the attraction of military service, especially in middle and upper strata. For most, military service is lifeless lore past down from grandparents that makes for conversation but not commitment. A string of foreign policy mistakes over the last fifty years brought waste and failure. Support for war was once almost reflexive. Opposition comes more readily now.
The military has struggled for years to meet manpower requirements. Standards have to be lowered. American brigades on Ukrainian steppes isn’t likely at all but from Putin’s perspective, diminished martial spirit signals a flaw that plays into his long game.
Political divisions
Putin recognizes that America is so polarized that one side’s positions are automatically discredited and persistently opposed. Politics hasn’t ended at the water’s edge in years, even while the most portentous conflict since World War Two is underway.
Aid to Ukraine is held up amid paralyzing budget debates. Critics believe, or at least assert, that the war is not in the national interest and that the money would be better spent at home. Prominent figures, presidential hopefuls, and aligned media dutifully repeat the message in order to weaken what they deem a pressing domestic enemy.
Powerful figures in the private sector, or straddling business and politics, have formed a mutual admiration society. Many foreign authoritarian leaders are in the club or on its fringes. The new global elite lives above the patriotic sentiments and democratic procedures of the masses. Some see Putin as one of them. Their vanity and zeal for power make them overlook his danger, Ukraine’s valor, and ominous strategic shifts in the world.
Next: paralyzing turmoil in the US
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.