Brian M Downing
President Biden will have his hands full. A slew of domestic problems await him. The same holds for international ones. China and Russia will present new problems and exacerbate old ones. The confrontation will take place at a pivotal moment in history. One great power is facing dire internal troubles and its chief rival is increasingly powerful and confrontational.
China and Russia will challenge the US more forcefully than before. The US military is overstretched and weary after twenty years of deployments. Further, its allies also face domestic pressures.
Beijing and Moscow have held back in recent years owing to President Trump’s mercurial nature. Biden is more cautious and hence predictable. Challenges can be made with less fear of a grievous overreaction. Biden, nearing his 80s, might also be perceived as less resolute than predecessors.
East Asia
China has long been challenging US allies along its periphery. PLA warships harass fishing vessels of countries hosting US forces. Harassments may continue and escalate. The PLA might challenge US ships and planes on routine Freedom of Navigation patrols through or over waters claimed by Beijing.
The most worrisome move would of course be an attack on Taiwan – a breakaway province in Beijing’s estimation – and that of the public as well. Chinese social media have been calling for unification and the PLA is increasingly confident. Amid the nationalist fervor, taking Taiwan seems obligatory and accomplishable.
The view here, however is that the outcome of a campaign for Taiwan is far from certain. The PLA could take serious casualties, similar to the US assault on Okinawa in 1945. The Okinawa force comprised hundreds of ships and half a million troops. The battle took three months. Thirty-six US ships were sunk, another 368 badly damaged, 763 aircraft were lost, and almost 5,000 sailors were killed. Taiwan is 15-times the area of Okinawa and its military (active and reserve) is 20-times the size of the Japanese garrison.
Even if the effort were successful, China would face alarmed countries along its periphery, heavy sanctions, the likely rise of nuclear powers in the region, and greater cooperation with the US. Sea lanes to the Persian Gulf and EU would be imperiled and Chinese shipping could bee harassed.
China could make a half-step toward regaining the breakaway province. Taiwan controls a handful of islands just off the mainland. Some are clearly visible. All are indefensible. Quemoy and Matsu were hotspots in the 1950s and Ike sent the navy to patrol offshore. They may become troublesome again, if not from invasion by ground troops, then by a return to the artillery barrages of the Cold War.
Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria
American troops are exposed in several parts of the Islamic world. They are vulnerable to forces influenced by Russia and China. Deeply resentful over sanctions, assassinations, and bombings, Iran will help.
Russia and Iran have been giving arms to the Taliban for several years now. The IRGC trains Taliban fighters at their Zahedan base in southeastern Iran. The aim is to bleed the US, drain public support for foreign wars, and gain influence with a group that will control a good deal of Afghanistan, with or without a peace deal. Arms and training can of course increase.
Russia, China, and Iran can use their influence with various tribes, entice groups, and the Kabul government to delay negotiations. The aim would be the same as with arming the Taliban. There is a risk, however, that arms and delays could bring the collapse of the Afghan army and make Afghanistan even more chaotic than it is.
The US continues to hold positions in both Iraq and Syria. They began as part of the effort to defeat ISIL and to some extent the mission continues, but the mission has also creeped. Syrian Kurds and Arabs have established an autonomous area, seized operation of oil fields, and may be on the way to forming a new country under US aegis – Sunnistan, as it’s been called here.
The US positions have already been attacked by Syrian troops, Russian mercenaries, and Shia militias. The attacks of course can escalate, leaving Washington with the dilemma of strengthening its positions or leaving the region.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.