Brian M Downing
The US effort to weaken Iran is failing. It has alienated longstanding allies, strengthened authoritarian rule in Tehran, and shown the limits of American power. The US may now be holding secret talks with Iran that will allow the US to climb down from escalation. If so, it will be challenging to present it as anything but an embarrassment.
Regardless of the talks’ outcome, regardless of what the November elections bring, China and Russia are positioned to gain power in the Gulf at the expense of the US – this amid a portentous rivalry with China.
Beijing and Moscow can make several arguments for Saudi Arabia and Iran to reduce animosities, move away from the US, and realign with them. Self-serving and manipulative though the arguments may be, Gulf rulers will find many of them compelling.
Senselessness of conflict and new management
A major war in the Gulf would be ruinous for both sides. Saudi and Iranian oil assets would both be hit hard and importers would turn to more reliable sources in N America and the Mediterranean, perhaps forever.
Emissaries from Beijing and Moscow will whisper to Riyadh that the US could not be relied upon to make war on its enemies. After a short flight across the water, they will tell Tehran that the US will sooner or later elect another anti-Iran president.
Better for both sides to reduce hostilities and accept China and Russia as guarantors of regional security. This would be a return to the “twin pillars” period when the US had good ties with Iran and Saudi Arabia, kept animosities within bounds, and maintained military bases up and down the Gulf.
Declining US interests
America once relied a great deal on Gulf oil. No longer. Domestic production has surged and self-sufficiency may arrive in a decade or two. The US looks to the region less as a place to buy energy and more as a place to sell weapons.
China and Russia have stronger interests in the Gulf. China buys immense amounts of oil and has strategically made contracts with both Saudi Arabia and Iran that stretch out well into the century. It has considerable leverage with both powers.
Russia collaborates with Gulf oil producers on production quotas and while they do not always see eye to eye, they have recently worked to bring oil from ruinously low prices in the spring back up to $40/bbl.
Both Russia and China are making inroads into the lucrative arms markets in the Gulf. Russia desperately needs export revenue; China wants to supplant the US wherever it can.
Political affinities
Saudi Arabia and Iran, China and Russia, share a strong preference for authoritarian rule. Whether a royal family, a college of mullahs, a communist party, or a powerful figure in the tradition of Peter the Great and Stalin, they all oppose democracy and take steps to prevent its taking root on home soil.
Democracy is of course a threat to their rule and they depict it as leading to moral decay and civil disorder. Subjects who call for democratic reforms are dupes of foreign powers who wish to weaken their rivals.
Authoritarian rule is secure in China and Russia, less so in Saudi Arabia and Iran. The latter two countries face periodic upheavals and have concern that unrest may one day overthrow them. They know the West will not help in violent repression.
On the other hand, China has demonstrated its resolve – at Tiananmen Square, in restive western districts, and more recently in Hong Kong. Russia keeps its media and opposition on a short leash. Those who pull too hard meet with a harsh hand or mysterious death.
Moscow has also demonstrated its commitment to authoritarian allies in Syria where it helped gas, bomb, and otherwise ruthlessly crush the opposition. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states may need so stalwart an ally someday, and they know it.
Russia and Saudi Arabia were on opposite sides in Syria, though of course neither favored democracy. Elsewhere they work together to support warlords and dictators – in Libya, the Sudan, and elsewhere in Africa.
Co-prosperity sphere
The West rose to economic power when European navies conquered lands and seized markets. Later, while Britain was mining coal, spinning cotton, and controlling world markets, China was slumbering. Beijing today sees Western supremacy as an historical aberration that will be corrected within a decade or two. The process is well underway.
China will soon have the largest economy in the world. Its Belt and Road Initiative will link it with Central and South Asia and Africa. Beijing will dominate in the production and distribution of vital commodities such as iron, copper, aluminum, and rare earths.
The West will be of secondary importance in the coming economic order. Better for Saudi Arabia, Iran, and other Gulf states to put aside sectarian disputes, join China’s co-prosperity sphere, and put economic and military arrangements with the West behind them.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.