Brian M Downing
A world war between China and Russia on the one hand and the West on the other has begun. Fighting is on in Ukraine and Israel and tension is building on the Korean Peninsula and along the Sino-Indian border. China will try to retake Taiwan in coming years, sooner if paralysis hits the US.
The contest is also underway in much of Asia, S America, and Africa. Chinese influence has long been on the rise. Its preeminence would increase Beijing’s control of commodities and lead to Chinese and Russian military bases across the Eurasian land mass and around the world. The outcome may be as important as the one in Ukraine.
Arguments
Growing influence follows from increased trade. However, China has begun diplomatic efforts to hasten things.
Though the US economy is strong, the country is becoming fragmented, polarized, and unstable. China’s economy is on the rise and will inevitably replace the United States as number one. Beijing may overstate how soon the day will arrive but it will dawn within the lifetime of many political and business leaders – and that shapes outlooks. Better to tie their nations’ fortunes with the winner and benefit from its capital investment and access to a market of over a billion people with rising disposable incomes.
China will play upon resentments dating back to imperialist times. In many parts of the world, America and Europe are still seen as white powers that conquered vast swathes of territory and meddled in many others. Events in the Middle East over the last twenty years freshened this concern. Noting that it once fell victim to Western exploitation, China will claim to be more sensitive to local concerns. (The record thus far is quite different but the argument will have listeners.)
Democracy brings decay, turmoil, and disreputable leaders. It’s had its day. The future belongs to skillful authoritarian rulers, drawn from an elite, who can maintain public order and recognize global trends – alluring words to many politicians and generals. China and Russia will train security forces and equip them with the tools of modern governance, including sophisticated surveillance systems and blunt weaponry. If disorder somehow arises, rulers will support one another. Russian troops and mercenaries will help as they have in Syria, Libya, Sudan, Niger, and Mali.
Objectives
China and Russia want to control commodities such as iron, copper, lithium, aluminum, oil, and rare earths. They will be apportioned to members of the new co-prosperity sphere and used as leverage against the US, EU, and the East Asian democracies. This will help move the world out of the dollar and into the yuan.
Economic integration will lead to strategic partnerships. Sometimes the flag follows trade. China is eager to protect sea lanes which bring in raw materials and export finished ones. The Persian Gulf figures highly here. China imports huge amounts of oil through Hormuz, the US buys almost none. American bases up and down the Gulf are threats to China’s goals. Beijing will one day press its partners to allow Russian and Chinese flags to be hoisted above closed American bases.
©2024 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.