Brian M Downing
Protests over the expulsion of Palestinians from their homes in Jerusalem escalated into violence and more recently into widespread fighting. The outcome isn’t in doubt. The Palestinians have only inaccurate homemade rockets and light weapons. The IDF has armor and airpower. Israeli intelligence has infiltrated Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and is terminating their leadership, as it’s done in the past. A brief, punitive raid into Gaza is pending.
The fighting is taking place in a different international context from previous conflicts. Major Sunni powers are presently aligned with Israel against Iran. China and Russia are eager to expand their influence in the Middle East at the US’s expense. The ongoing conflict will bring new problems and reassessments. Some may come soon.
The Sunni states
Israel has been able to convince most Sunni states to end hostilities and cooperate economically and militarily. Egypt and Jordan inked peace agreements years ago. More recently, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, ever hostile to Shia Iran, have shifted from opposing Israel to opposing Iran.
The fighting in Israel today poses two problems, especially if the Likud government takes advantage of the unrest to control the Temple Mount, as many religious and secular Israelis dearly wish.
First, it could destabilize many of Israel’s Sunni allies.
The shift to cooperation is recent and comes after decades of official antisemitism and support for Palestinians. Most princes are not well loved to begin with and have lost support for repressing Arab Spring movements at home and abroad. Most have sizable populations supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood, al Qaeda, ISIL, and representative government, all of whom may be more demonstrative in their opposition to monarchy. They have tremendous differences but they have common ground in changing their governments.
Second, the princes may, either out of concern with domestic unrest or anger over Israel’s repression, opt to break with or reduce strategic ties with Israel. This would dismantle decades of adroit diplomacy and bring Israel back to square one. (The view here has long been that the Israeli-Sunni alignment was unlikely to last. Saudi ambitions for regional dominance would eventually turn against the Jewish state.) Netanyahu is undermining decades of adroit diplomacy.
Sunni shift to China
Wars and uprisings over the last several decades took place during a period of unquestioned American military and economic dominance. Polarized politics and continuing violence make that at least questionable in long-run strategic planning.
China can advance several arguments to the Gulf powers to distance them from the US and enter its co-prosperity sphere.
1) The US is deeply and intransigently supportive of Israel. Washington will place its ally’s interests above those of Gulf states, even when realist calculations suggest benefits from another course. Beijing, unaligned with Israel and having no domestic groups with a stake there, will promise evenhandedness, perhaps considerable support in righting the situation.
2) Alignment with Israel against Iran is undermining rulers in the region and opening the door to democracy, which all concerned view as conducive to moral decay, separatism, and collapse.
3) China will support authoritarian rule. It has demonstrated that in Hong Kong, Myanmar, Zambia, and elsewhere. Its chief ally, Russia, has ably demonstrated its support for authoritarian rulers in Syria, Libya, Belarus, and across Central Asia.
4) The US no longer relies on the Gulf for energy. China, however, does and that arrangement will continue for decades. That presents a portentous reciprocity. Trade can flow in and out of the Gulf as the region enters Beijing’s co-prosperity sphere. This holds for Sunni and Shia states as well, as Beijing argues that war benefits no one and it will ensure evenhandedness.
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.