Brian M Downing
Biden’s foreign policy team has a lot of work to do. Its predecessors relied on the counsel of inexperienced loyalists and relatives, slighted long-standing allies, and acted arbitrarily and inconsistently.
Iran will be important. The Trump administration walked away from the JCPOA and climbed the escalation tree. Biden must find a way to step down as gracefully as possible. Iran, angered by sanctions and assassinations, abetted by Russia and China, might not oblige.
The Trump policy
Candidate Trump campaigned with fierce anti-Iran rhetoric. A year after taking office, despite no evidence of Tehran’s non-compliance, he broke from the JCPOA, imposed harsh sanctions, probably supported bombings and assassinations inside Iran, and at times readied attacks.
The administration’s objective was never clear. It may have simply been a stricter inspections program. More likely, it wanted to bring fiscal crisis, destabilize the government, and trigger an uprising that swept out the mullahs and generals. Hope springs eternal in Washington that ousting an undesirable government will lead to a better one.
Iran has not given in. It’s returned to uranium enrichment, though never to weapons-grade levels. This is probably an effort to drive a wedge between the US and supporters of the JCPOA. If so, Tehran has been successful.
The Iranian public was angered by Washington’s sanctions and threats. General Soleimani was popular with much of the public but even among those less supportive, his assassination by an American drone was another insult from Washington. The Trump administration’s efforts have strengthened the mullahs and generals.
The view from Iran
Iranians feel they’ve stood up to Washington. Elsewhere, much of Europe and Asia are disgusted with American heavy-handedness and at least somewhat sympathetic to Iran. Washington’s the one that’s backing down.
Tehran might not be willing to greet the new president and return to pre-Trump relations. First, it might calculate that hostility remains entrenched in US bureaus and think tanks and it’s only a matter of time before another inexperienced, credulous president relaunches delenda est Tehrano policies.
Second, sanctions and assassinations have embittered Iranian leaders. Vengeance figures in their strategic outlook and in domestic politics as well. Third, the US’s position in the world has dropped sharply in the last few years. The country is beset by racial, political, and separatist strife, and a fiscal crisis looms.
Events are leading to a remarkable geopolitical change in coming years – one similar to Britain’s retreat from globalism after WW2. The economic and military center of the world in coming decades may be China and Russia. Tehran can work with Moscow and Beijing to speed that day.
Scenarios
It’s possible that Iran and the US go back to the status quo ante Trump. President Rouhani and others want that but bad blood and new strategic calculations by the mullahs and generals might make Tehran want more. Three scenarios are possible.
1) Iran refuses to give up its enriched uranium unless the US dismantles the MEK – a militant group responsible for assassinations and bombings inside Iran, and currently based on a US military facility in Albania.
The request is not unreasonable but the US is unlikely to comply – and might be unable to. Saudi Arabia and Israel will maintain support for the MEK, whether in Albania or another haven. The Sunni princes would retaliate by cutting US arms purchases and defense contractors and Israel supporters will rally support in Washington.
Upshot: the enrichment problem continues, the new administration faces opposition at home and abroad, and Iran wins a propaganda coup.
2) Iran refuses to give up the enriched uranium until the US leaves Iraq and Syria. The US will naturally balk but Iran will step up militia attacks on US personnel and Russia will do the same in Syria. Paradoxically, the new administration will probably be looking to exit Iraq and Syria, but on its own terms, not those dictated by Iran.
Upshot: the US stays mired in the Middle East and faces continuing human costs without security benefits.
3) Iran accelerates its enrichment program and nears weapons-grade levels. The US is in a quandary as Israel presses for a strike and prepares one of its own.
Russia and China intervene diplomatically and convince Iran to step back in exchange for a timed US withdrawal from Iraq and Syria.
Upshot: US prestige in region suffers as foreign rivals defuse a situation the previous administration’s policies created.
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The new president will face a geopolitical situation no predecessor saw or foresaw since 1945 when the US emerged as the most powerful and wealthiest country in the world. American power has declined significantly in the last few years. Iran, China, and Russia know this and will seek to further the decline.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.