Brian M Downing
Flooding has been used in war for centuries. The Dutch broke dikes to hold back Louis XIV’s invasions. The Germans flooded the same region to slow the Allies late in World War Two. The latter was a war crime. So is Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro just north of Kherson. It represents a new level of Russian ruthlessness amid a failing war.
The destruction of the dam will further tax the Ukrainian state’s resources which are already stretched thin; force the army to redeploy engineering units from combat roles to relief and flood control operations; and demonstrate Putin’s willingness to escalate. Perhaps most importantly, it will make Ukrainian operations into the land bridge from Kherson oblast difficult or impossible for months.
The dam’s destruction will lead to escalation on both sides. NATO transfers of fighter jets and other weapons will be increased. The US will probably deliver the ATACMS, whose longer range will put Russian positions in danger, including many on the Crimean peninsula.
Having succeeded in denying a sizable swathe of territory to Ukrainian offensive operations, Putin may see a similar opportunity to hinder another likely axis of advance. Engineering a catastrophe at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, presently under Russian control, would spread lethal radiation levels and deny another swathe north of Melitopol, which is a likely target of a Ukrainian drive.
The distinction between blowing up an immense dam and causing a second Chernobyl disaster probably isn’t especially large in the mind of a former KGB enforcer and architect of a ruinous war. Both signal his iron will and determination to be Stalin’s successor. But there might be more. NATO powers must now ponder the possibility that Putin’s use of nuclear weapons isn’t a hollow threat but another method of avoiding defeat and establishing a place in the Russian pantheon.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.