Brian M Downing
Benjamin Netanyahu has returned to power astride a stridently majoritarian religious-nationalist bloc. His initial acts were harsh crackdowns on Palestinians, dire warnings to Iran, and attempts to weaken the judiciary. In so doing he’s created fierce civil unrest, alienated a good deal of American-Jewish support, and threatened to undo a generation of diplomacy with Sunni powers.
Origins
The new Right’s ideological foundation predates the founding of Israel, when Naziism and E European variants bode ill for the Jewish people and Ze’ev Jabotinsky began the “revisionist” Zionist movement. Revisionists saw an urgent need for a Jewish homeland where European Jews could find safety from the looming disaster. A strong party was needed to seize land in Palestine and a strong state was essential to defend it from inhospitable neighbors.
During the post-WW2 independence fight, revisionists fought the British and Arabs but also secular Zionists led by David Ben Gurion and Yitzhak Rabin. Both sides took casualties. Defeated, the revisionist movement ended its militant period and became a minority party in the new state dominated by secular center-left parties. Jabotinsky died in 1940 while in the US and Israeli politicians refused to allow his remains to be interred in the new nation until 1964.
The generals who defeated Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq in 1967 were secular but the euphoric aftermath greatly strengthened religious-nationalism. Surely, many held, the victory against vastly larger armies and the conquest of the West Bank, Golan Heights, Sinai, and East Jerusalem was the unfolding of God’s plan. The glory and might of David’s epoch were returning. Not everyone agreed. An army rabbi implored General Uzi Narkiss, who took East Jerusalem, to blow up al Aqsa and the Dome of the Rock and make way for the Temple. Narkiss threatened to arrest him.
Domestic politics
The religious-nationalist movement formed a handful of conservative parties. The Yom Kippur War (1973) and decades of intermittent terrorist attacks strengthened them and weakened tolerance and the rule of law. In 1995 the Right so ruthlessly vilified prime minister and former general Rabin as a traitor that a settler assassinated him. Parts of the Right celebrated. The rest of the country was horrified – by the murder and the response.
Today, Herzl, Ben Gurion, and the hearty pioneers are the past. Secular democracy is endangered and a religious-nationalist era is at hand. Immense spirited protests have gone on for months in coastal cities where the nation’s economy is centered. They know demographic trends are unfavorable and feel they must make a stand now.
The IDF has long prided itself for creating and defending a vibrant democratic nation. It remains secular, especially at the top, though religious-nationalism has made deliberate inroads in many units. Today, soldiers look around and wonder about the politics of the men and women alongside them. Many reservists are refusing service. Generals voice concern over discord in the ranks and the heady, impractical triumphalism of the government that’s making the nation appear ungovernable and vulnerable.
Regional ties
Netanyahu is undermining the diplomacy that has brought Sunni powers to Israel’s side. The government is coming down hard on dissent in the West Bank and is determined to see its rolling annexation through to the end. Fighting is sharper than any time since the last intifada. Security forces have a greater presence on the Temple Mount. Jordan’s longstanding authority over it is in doubt.
The Sunni princes find Netanyahu’s actions reckless and insulting. More and more his faithful are openly disrespectful toward Muslims – and secular Jews and Christians as well. The princes’ subjects have long questioned the piety of their rulers and acquiescence to the Israeli Right worsens matters. More aggressive steps on the Temple Mount could bring domestic trouble and reappraisal of diplomatic ties.
China
Netanyahu’s government is failing to see the changes coming to the Middle East. China is easing hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The sectarian enemies are reopening embassies and beginning talks on the stalemated Yemen war. Beijing will likely press Tehran to step back from uranium enrichment. Without an Iranian danger, Israel is far less important. Military action against Iran hinders peaceful resolution and regional prosperity. Every Netanyahu misstep underscores this – and he doesn’t tread gingerly.
China buys copious amounts of oil from both sides of the Gulf, as did the US until the Khomeini revolution (1979). Beijing is positioned to bring back the “twin pillars” days of a major power’s preeminence kept the peace. Beijing’s economy, technology, and command over many global commodities make it an attractive partner for Gulf states eager to industrialize. China has much more to offer than Israel.
As Chinese diplomacy unfolds and creates new political and economic realities, anti-Israel sentiment will probably return to the region. It’s prominent in Arab and Iranian publics and probably just below the surface among rulers. China, however, wants to secure energy sources, not avenge Arab defeats. Going back to the days of Arab-Israeli wars might slow the Long March back to global mastery. China would welcome detaching Israel from the US, if only partially, and welcoming it into the co-prosperity sphere. A pragmatic government in Jerusalem might see merits.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.