Brian M Downing
Iran and Saudi Arabia have been at daggers drawn for decades. The conflict is based partly on the 1400-year-old schism within Islam but more on the instability from the 1979 Khomeini Revolution.That led to fears of expansionary Shiism and then to a Sunni invasion of Iran. More recently, the two sides have clashed through proxies. Riyadh supports MeK bombings and assassinations inside Iran and Tehran helps Houthi drones strikes on Saudi assets.
Over the last few weeks, however, the Saudis and Iranians have been in talks. It may be the calm before the war, but something good might come.
Iran
Though less wealthy than its Sunni rivals, and burdened by US sanctions, Iran is in good bargaining position. It fought an Iraq-led offensive in the 1980s and endured foreign-backed bombings and assassinations. The US’s heavy-handedness and baseless reimposition of sanctions in the last few years have annoyed Washington’s allies and paradoxically brought a measure of sympathy for Iranians.
Iran wants an understanding with the Sunnis to enhance its security of course but other reasons are clear. Like most countries in the Middle East, Iran has a large youth population that wants careers and opportunities. The mullahs and generals must bring economic growth or face formidable and lasting unrest.
An agreement with Riyadh could include Iran’s reduction of uranium enrichment and allowing greater access for IAEA inspection. This would greatly embarrass the US and bring pressure to end sanctions. It would also weaken the Sunni alignment with Israel which was based on common opposition to Israel. Many years of Israeli diplomacy would be in danger.
Saudi Arabia
Mohammad bin Salman comes to the dialog after a string of failures. The kingdom tried to oust Assad in Syria or pressure him to break with Iran. Assad remains in power and aligned with Iran. The effort to subjugate the Shia Houthi of northern Yemen is faring no better. The Houthis mauled Saudi forces along the border, which underscored the Saudi military’s ineffectualness, and are driving on the oil fields near Marib.
The war is a human rights embarrassment and blame has fallen on the crown prince. He has pressed Washington to attack Iran but without success. His foreign policy is an embarrassment. His standing at home is well below that of the mullahs and generals across the Gulf. They’ve shown much better skill in world affairs.
MBS needs to bolster his flagging prestige at home and abroad. A shift to diplomacy beckons. If not revered like his grandfather, who defeated the Hashemites and Rashidis and established the kingdom, he will settle for the less dazzling but nonetheless impressive aura of peacemaker – the visionary prince who ended decades of strife in the Gulf. The prestige will be all the greater if he brings movement on Iran’s nuclear program.
Detente with Iran will better the prospects for his ambitious industrialization program. This is urgent as Iran is decades ahead in economic diversity and technology. Both sides know that the importance of oil in economics and geopolitics is headed for decline.
© 2021Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.