Brian M Downing
The Yemen war has been stalemated for over a year. The southern Sunnis, despite strong foreign backing, have failed to take the Shia north. The Houthis have occasionally fired missiles into Saudi Arabia and skirmished along the northern frontier. Over the weekend, however, Houthi drones struck a Saudi oil facility and set it ablaze.
Saudi production is expected to suffer for a short period. Oil prices have risen twenty percent on world markets. The princes in Riyadh are furious and looking to retaliate – or for the US to retaliate. What does this strike portend for the Yemeni war and the US-Iran conflict?
Iranian backing?
Secretary of State Pompeo has blamed Iran for the strike, though evidence thus far hasn’t been presented. The administration, or parts of it, have long been eager for a confrontation with Iran the strike might be used to encourage the president to act.
Iran indeed supports the Shia Houthis but laying every action at Tehran’s door isn’t convincing. The Houthis are a fiercely independent force that arose in response to rising Saudi influence in their country. They do not take orders from anyone. Some of their weaponry comes from Iran but the bulk of it was seized when the Yemeni national army fell apart and headed to the south.
Some drones are highly sophisticated, others not. ISIL was able to purchase commercial drones and arm them in garage workshops. It doesn’t take a large or complex war head to ignite an oil installation. With a little luck, a roman candle can do the trick. However, the strikes may have been made with Iranian-made Qasef drones.
Goals
The strike was intended to continue telling Saudi Arabia that its air campaign on Yemen has a cost. It may also be an attempt to goad the Saudis into launching a ground incursion to the south. The Houthis would welcome this as they would inflict serious and possibly politically-disastrous casualties on the Saudis and further demonstrate the frailties of their well-appointed but listless army. Saudi air defenses certainly didn’t win any honors in defending those oil facilities from a handful of slow-moving drones.
The strikes are focusing world attention on Yemen. Oil prices are shooting up, civilian casualties are looked at again, and the ruthless ambition of Mohammad bin Salman is underscored. World powers may consider supporting the UAE’s proposal to partition Yemen into a Shia north and Sunni south – an outcome supported here for several years now. http://www.downingreports.com/approaching-yemen-carefully/
US-Iran
The administration’s disposition toward Iran is in doubt, much to the dismay of Saudi Arabia and Israel. Last summer, President Trump suddenly cancelled an impending airstrike on Iran and only last week fired John Bolton, a longstanding part of the Persia delenda est network. Following this weekend’s drone strike, however, Pompeo is blaming Iran and Trump proclaims he’s “locked and loaded”, a military term he probably learned well after the Vietnam days.
PM Netanyahu is always locked and loaded. His proximity to hostile forces and personal temperament see to that. He is undoubtedly contemplating a timely increase in strikes on Iranian and Hisbollah positions in Syria and Lebanon. However, he will do so for the first time with some doubt as to Washington’s support.
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.