Brian M Downing
Hamas has launched large-scale, well-organized attacks on Israel. They started on the fiftieth anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. There are similarities. Both entailed serious Israeli intelligence failures, high casualties, and international ramifications. The Soviet Union urged Egypt and Syria to avenge their losses in the Six-Day War and once the IDF turned the tide, threatened to intervene. Iran is behind the Hamas attacks and it’s also encouraging Lebanese Shia group Hisbollah to strike with missiles and ground forces. IRGC drone strikes from Syria are likely as well. What are the offensive’s aims?
Iran, Hamas, and Hisbollah cannot defeat Israel. Only a zealous handful are that misguided. They may believe the attacks will deepen fissures in the Israeli public and state. Determined protests against Netanyahu’s authoritarian legislation have been ongoing since March. Many groups are threatening to go out on strike – military personnel foremost among them. However, the recent attacks are much more likely to bring unity than internal conflict, at least for the time being as counterattacks go on. Netanyahu may emerge stronger.
A more likely aim – one with considerable strategic vision and good chances of succeeding – is disrupting the comity between Israel and the Emirates and Saudi Arabia and increasing tension between the princes and their subjects. The once improbable alignment is based on shared fear of Iranian power in Lebanon, Syria, and the Gulf and Tehran’s nuclear program. It brought diplomatic ties and trade opportunities – all to the detriment of Iran and the Palestinians.
Arab publics have been increasingly angered by Israeli actions on the West Bank and the sacred sites atop the Noble Sanctuary – the Temple Mount as it’s also known. The recent attacks are called Operation al Aqsa Flood. Arab leaders felt the need to express concern in recent weeks. Israeli retaliation will be fierce and protracted. The IAF has already flattened buildings in Gaza and troops are mobilizing for a ground attack. Troops are also headed for the Lebanese and Syrian borders and independent actors are rising up in the West Bank.
Saudi and Emirati rulers don’t have broad popular support and face opposition from traditionalists, Islamists, and reformers – especially as a demographic bulge has brought millions of young people. Events in Gaza will force rulers to rethink relations with Israel or face determined opposition. There could be a reprise of something like the turmoil of the Arab Spring which is fresh in people’s minds.
Sympathetic demonstrations are underway in the Middle East and many parts of the Arab diaspora. The princes must recognize the numbers and enthusiasm and wonder of the strength and reliability of their security forces.
Next: the consequences for Iran
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.