The grand (western) alliance against ISIL

The grisly executions of last year and the recent Paris attacks have brought increased commitment from major powers to fight ISIL. The US, France, Germany, and Britain are conducting or supporting airstrikes in Syria and Iraq. Russia purports to be doing the same in Syria, and occasionally does.

The agreement among the major powers is impressive, as is their might. But what will they accomplish? And what will it lead to?

Absence of targets

There are scores of sophisticated aircraft flown by skilled pilots over the Syrian and Iraqi skies. However, they do not always find targets. Indeed, well over half the aircraft return to base without delivering their ordnance. That rate may increase.

In the absence of improved ground intelligence from, say, special forces teams inserted behind ISIL lines, pressure will build in western capitals to be more aggressive and less cautious in target selection. We’ve seen this already with the recent strikes on the ISIL capital of Raqqa and the interdiction of oil-bearing trucks instead of the destruction of oil-producing sites. Non-ISIL casualties have likely risen sharply.

Absence of effective ground troops 

It’s well known that airpower alone has never won a war. No plane has ever taken a hill. Military thought holds that ground troops are needed. Military analysts don’t see them on the horizon.

Kurds have shown the best fighting ability, but they have no interest in driving far outside their lands and helping Arabs isn’t high on their agenda. Further, even the Kurds of northern Iraq are now fighting each other – Shia against Sunni, Yazidi against Muslim.

Despite hundreds of thousands of troops and billions of dollars of armaments, regional armies are devoid of fighting spirit and for the most part remain on the sidelines. Many of those that are engaged in battle, however half-heartedly, will look to the fighters overhead and see little reason to risk their lives taking a position when a well-directed bomb can accomplish the same end. Why cross a hundred meters to do a job that western boys can do?

Regional responses 

The West’s unity, determination, and displays of military might are seen repeatedly in the news. Westerners look upon them with pride, and see their actions bringing hope to the region.

Middle Easterners, of course, see things differently. They see the western powers as a recent coalition of traditional interlopers and conquerors who aspire once more to humiliate Islam and subjugate the region. A few thousand US special forces are but the vanguard of a new invading force. Crusaders, Sykes and Picot, neoconservatives, and now the grand coalition.

Their own governments are led by an array of generals, dictators, and princes who cannot stand up to the West or to ISIL. They have neither effectiveness nor legitimacy. The West has assembled this coalition because they fear ISIL. It has defeated their proxies and struck their homelands, including capitals. This is an attraction to many young men who have seen their armies run from westerners and Israelis time and again.

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The grand coalition is born of frustration and anger, neither of which helps clear thinking. It will weaken ISIL, kill a few of its leaders, and reduce oil revenue. This is welcome. It is unlikely, however, to have great effect.

Though precise numbers will be elusive, the West may be increasing the appeal of jihad and its most effective practitioner – all the more so given the ubiquity and pride of western news coverage. Better to speak softly, carry very big sticks, and brace for a long war.

^©2015 Brian M Downing