The Islamic Republic of Iran has held its first elections since the inking of the nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions. The results indicate a significant increase of reformers in the national assembly. Reformers are also doing well in the Assembly of Experts which will likely appoint a new Supreme Leader in a few years.
Iran has seen a century of popular efforts to replace shahs and clerics with elected officials. The effort has hardly been smooth. It has been plagued by domestic opposition, foreign interference, and invasion from abroad. The elections of 2016 mark an important step in the direction of representative government.
Fairness
The thought of elections in Iran naturally calls to mind the obvious fraud in the 2009 presidential election, when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won a huge portion of the vote and remote districts turned in complete counts in improbable times. When protesters took to the streets they were crushed by IRGC toughs.
This year’s election seems to have been above board. Reformists have done well. In Tehran, they won every seat. There have been neither implausible landslides for conservatives nor suspiciously early results from remote districts. Why did the mullahs and generals allow fair elections this year?
It’s unlikely due to fear of foreign reaction. Iran wants trade with the outside world, especially the EU, and the latter is more concerned with commerce than with democracy, as of course are other key trade partners, China and Russia. The US is out of the calculus. The mullahs and generals realize they cannot further antagonize their urban middle classes, who are essential to the future of a thriving, technologically advanced nation, and who are staunch supporters of reform.
Reformist gains
Reformist gains, thus far, do not threaten the regime, at least not near-term. Reformers have not won a majority in the national assembly; they are still offset by large blocs of centrists and hardliners. The assembly remains chiefly a consultative body which debates national policy but must ultimately defer to higher ups.
Power is still in the hands of the Supreme Leader – an almost comical title that speaks volumes of where power lies, and where it wants to remain. Elections to the Assembly of Experts include former president Rafsanjani, a moderate and critic of the 2009 electoral fraud. He is one of several ayatollahs who, though often deemed conservatives, are in fact important advocates of democratization.
The importance of this year’s elections will be better understood in coming years, when a new presidential election takes place and, more importantly, when the Assembly of Experts chooses the next Supreme Leader on the death of Khameini.
Conservative strength
Opposition to reform remains strong and well-positioned. Democracy, and efforts to bring it, are widely seen as harbingers of decadence as in the West, political-religious conflict as in Yemen, and national disintegration as in Syria.
Conservatives still have the virtue police to keep western influence off the streets of major cities. A recent smartphone app, Gershad, which helped young people know the block-by-block locations of the virtue police was quite popular, until it was shut down recently.
Militarism is the strongest weapon in the conservative arsenal. By presenting themselves as defenders of the Iranian nation and Shia faith, religious and military elites can justify their power, fend off calls for reform, and treat harshly with those who push for fuller reform.
A quick look at the Fars News Service and Press TV reveals story after story of heroic contributions to fighting ISIL in Syria and Iraq, critical help to oppressed Shia in Yemen, the menace of Sunni powers in the region, and of course the threat posed by Israel and the US.
Claims of military mastery in the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s brought the mullahs and generals the power and legitimacy they have today. They are using similar claims about standing up to ISIL, Saudi Arabia, the US, and Israel to hold on to their power and legitimacy.
Copyright 2016 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.
This year’s election may seem “above board” except for the thousands of candidates who were
forbiden to run.
That’s true. The Guardian Council has to approve candidates. This year the Council rejected the candidacy of Ayatollah Khomeini’s grandson. The council rejected the candidacy of Ayatollah Rafsanjani in the 2009 presidential campaign. Rafsanjani did get elected to the Assembly of Experts this year, though. However, the Council did allow a lot of reformers to run and they’ve done well.