Brian M Downing
Russia and China, along with allies Iran and N Korea, are acting in concert to replace the US-led world order. Russia began the war with efforts in Georgia and Crimea before trying to seize all of Ukraine. Iran and regional proxies Hamas, Hisbollah, and the Houthis are attacking Israeli, US, and British targets. Russian troops and mercenaries are replacing western forces in N Africa. A third world war is on.
Germany and Japan began the previous one on seeing opponents weakened by lingering post-1918 malaise, internal divisions, and the Great Depression. China and Russia see similar weaknesses in Western states. The weaknesses are certainly there but states driven by vengefulness and senses of destiny are prone to error.
The status quo countries
Western states achieved global hegemony through economic clout, national unity, and martial spirit. All three have weakened considerably since World War Two. Most Western countries face serious divisions and polarization. Budgets are contested, deficits aren’t addressed, crises loom.
Democracy has lost a good deal of its sacredness – and practicality as well. Far-right movements thought dead in 1945 are on the rise. Some, as in Italy, are hostile to Russia as were 1930s predecessors. Others, as in France, see Putin as defending Christian values that are fading as dogmas of diversity and tolerance prevail.
Respect has dwindled for leaders and institutions – from the distant past to the present day. Public life is uncivil, violent, and hyper-individualistic. The idea of national duty lacks the prevalence and intensity of previous decades. Many countries cannot meet recruitment goals and know a return to the draft would be problematic if not impossible.
A portion of Western youth are deeply alienated from their nations’ history, traditions, and policies. Some are fiercely engaged in extremist activities – far left and far right. Protracted paramilitary brawls and acts of terrorism are likely. You don’t have to be a Weatherman to see that.
The new Axis
Russia and China feel internally united and are certain they can upset the old order. Russians have for centuries seen the West as decadent and dangerous while they themselves are righteous and able to endure great suffering. Rome and Constantinople fell owing to internal decay. Moscow is the Third Rome and it will not fall. A great destiny awaits.
Napoleon and Hitler each conquered morally weak states before losing to the Russian people. The West has decayed considerably since 1945, while Russia has been renewed under Putin’s leadership. Imperial trappings abound. Nationalism and Orthodoxy are fused and channeled into restoring the territory and prestige stolen by Western machinations that undermined Stain’s state an empire.
National unity may be even stronger in China. Its leadership has overcome weakness and imperial invasions from the nineteenth century to World War Two. Sun Yat-sen roused the national spirit, Mao strengthened it, and Xi has equipped it with a powerful economy and military. The Chinese people see each new skyscraper and warship as steps toward restoring the greatness once theirs.
Both countries are well-ordered police states. They see protests as dangers to civil order and geopolitical ambitions. (Though turmoil in the West is welcomed.) Their instruments of repression range from hi-tech to iron fists and their use in unrestrained by norms or laws.
Potential miscalculations
Senses of certainty and inevitability vitalize nations, enthrall publics, and confer great confidence in leaders. They usually bring arrogance and miscalculation – and possibly disaster. After all, Tojo and Hitler brought glimpses of empire but their capitals soon lay in ruins.
Actions have reactions. The Axis’s aggressiveness in Ukraine and around Taiwan is changing the geopolitical environment. Concerns are mounting in most of Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, and East Asia. India too is feeling endangered and senses that longstanding ties with Russia won’t hold back China. Kazakhstan and other former SSRs want no part of reintegration into Stalin’s empire. Many parts of the developing world see themselves becoming colonies of the Chinese metropole.
The new Axis may underestimate their enemies. Western publics certainly lack the martial spirit that placed them at the top but their professional soldiers don’t come from the general public. They step forward from traditional backgrounds and are exceptionally well trained, led, equipped, and motivated.
Russia and China may be overestimating their own militaries. Clearly, Russia has. Putin and his generals convinced themselves they could take Kyiv in weeks, then swallow the rest of Ukraine in short order. (The thought of protracted guerrilla warfare might not have occurred at all.) Instead, the army is bogged down in a war of attrition.
China has produced large numbers of ground forces, ships, and planes. They make for impressive displays but they’ve not been put to the test since the Korean War. No soldier has seen a Normandy and no general has planned one. It’s unclear if their generals have reached their positions through professional accomplishments or political loyalties, as with their Russian allies, as with much of the Chinese economy. Nor is it clear if they know how to coordinate air, land, and sea assets or adapt to dynamic battlefields. Xi and his generals may have blinded themselves as much as Putin et al did.
©2024 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.