Brian M Downing
Success brings complications. Britain’s ascendance led to intensified rivalries with European powers and in time, resentments from the colonies. After World War Two, America found itself burdened as Europe decolonized and deeply resented for its economic and cultural dominance.
China is eager to become number one. The problems look manageable. The future is so bright that the road ahead might not be seen clearly. There are movements and states eager to make the road difficult.
Population pressures
The same demographic pressures destabilizing governments and opening the door to Chinese-backed regimes (and integration into the co-prosperity sphere) will work against Beijing. People in the streets today want freedom of expression and a say in their future. That’s clear in Thailand and Myanmar today. Hong Kong was once a place to emulate. Now its fate must be avoided.
Beijing firmly believes that western ideas of democracy are bringing decay to the US and parts of the EU. It’s confident that the people incorporated into its sphere will come to respect prosperity, mobility, and the well-ordered state guiding them from above.
Beijing thinks rising wealth and repressive capacity will mollify people in the sphere. However, rising wealth historically brings changes in outlooks and expectations. As old economic rules fall away, so do social and political ones.
Chinese chauvinism, indigenous nationalism
A cultural revolution, of sorts, is underway. Mao expelled foreigners and ended warlordism but his economic policies kept the country back. The West remained dominant, even in Asia. The Chinese are now certain they will soon retake their preeminence in the world, relegating the West to a secondary, deferent region. The Chinese, proud and confident, have adopted a nationalist, messianic ideology. In foreign countries, they are haughty and superior.
Their engineers and skilled workers take charge. Transfer of technology and skills don’t come easily; it’s not part of the plan. Locals are limited to roles as middle managers, consumers, and proletarians.
Sources of opposition
Nationalism is resurgent in many parts of the world – a reaction to free trade, arid secularism, and modernist culture. China’s expansion will cause nationalist backlashes. Economic growth in the co-prosperity sphere brinsg large-scale operations and more Chinese products in shops and bazaars. It hits artisans, craftsmen, and small businesses hard.
Beijing is developing a reputation of undermining foreign governments and favoring loyal oligarchs and generals. It will find that collaborative elites are often members of specific tribes whose dominance is already deeply resented. Resentments are already discernible in Pakistan, Iran, and Zambia. Crowds in Myanmar are battling security forces and burning Chinese factories.
(The prospect of Russian resentment over Chinese dominance in its Near Abroad and Far Eastern Province has been explored in earlier articles.)
China shows little concern with Islamism. The movement’s sense of international community and capacity for violent opposition have made marks around the world yet China is on a collision course with it. Beijing’s treatment of tens of millions of Uighur in Xinjiang province includes forced labor, reeducation camps, and efforts to stamp out the Muslim people’s identity. This has led to stronger religious sensibilities.
Uighur men exfiltrate through Southeast Asia and serve with jihadi groups in Afghanistan and the Levant. They learn lethal skills, establish ties with fellow Uighur and aggrieved Muslims from Central Asia, and plan a return to Xinjiang.
Gulf monarchs and mullahs remain silent over China’s treatment of Muslims but Al Jazeera keeps their subjects apprised. Fighting the Chinese may one day be as attractive as fighting Russians once was. The new jihadis could fight far closer to home, against Chinese personnel and their own deferent rulers.
In some countries anti-Chinese fighters may enjoy considerable foreign support from Beijing’s rivals and enemies. Central Asia, where government is weak, Islamist ferment strong, China’s presence substantial, and a Uighur population in place, may become an expansive battleground in coming years.
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.