Brian M Downing
The new foreign policy team has shown no reluctance to send troops into danger. That’s clear from their positions in previous administrations and at research institutes between political appointments. They may be more cautious after the failure of the Afghan surge, the aftermath of ousting Qaddafi, the failed attempt to oust Assad, and being drawn into the Yemen conflict.
The presence of Lloyd Austin, a recently retired general who’s served far and wide since 2001, might offer a voice of restraint, if for no other reason than a belief previous administrations have had poor strategic priorities.
Nonetheless, world events may sound the familiar call for US action. Rivals and adversaries sense an historic shift as America is in political turmoil and its military is overstretched and exhausted after twenty years of deployments, engagements, and casualties.
The Sunni Gulf states
American reliance on oil from the Persian Gulf is almost over. However, it’s been replaced by reliance on arms purchases from that region. The money flows the other way but dependency continues. The injection of petrodollars into the US economy gives the princes significant influence with the defense establishment in Washington and on Capitol Hill.
The influence has had considerable effect on Washington’s abandonment of the JCPOA, support for the MEK, involvement in the Yemen war, and the continuing presence in eastern Syria. None are in American security interests. It’s difficult to see a president risking the inflow of petrodollars but the present arrangement has caused involvement in wars, insurgencies, and terrorism.
Biden wants to rejoin the JCPOA and ease tensions with Iran. The Sunni princes want to avoid this as they want Iran badly weakened. They, in conjunction with the Likud, can execute assassinations and and bombings inside Iran that will keep tensions high, though Tehran will welcome the US’s return to the JCPOA as long as it entails lifting sanctions.
Africa
Jihadism is well positioned in the Sahel and West Africa. Northern regions are Arab and Islamic, the south black and Christian. This makes for tension and animosities. Add in poor, corrupt government, usually by a dominant tribe at the expense of others, and divisions and fighting will follow, as will demands for autonomy and independence.
AQ and ISIL have ingratiated itself with aggrieved tribes. They enjoy havens, strike at some distance on market towns and army garrisons, and underscore the ineffectiveness of governments. Local armies are not up to the task. French and American advisors are overstretched.
Jihadism in East Africa was once confined mainly to lawless Somalia. Al Shabab’s fortunes have come and gone. They are on the rise now. Furthermore, jihadis have struck down the coast into Mozambique where an Islamist autonomy movement is underway in Cabo Delgado Province.
Ongoing US operations
US troops remain exposed to hostile fire in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. Trump has lowered the numbers but hasn’t come through with the promised complete pullouts. Biden will inherit all three conflicts and they will burden him.
Unless there’s an honorable diplomatic exit or orders from the capitals to leave, Biden is unlikely to find consensus in his foreign policy team for withdrawing, even though the troops would be better used in contests with Russia and China. The team will seek mainly to undo the damage Trump did, not take bold steps in new directions.Biden would face a storm of protests from the GOP in congress, conservative media, and veterans organizations.
Unfortunately, a heedless, conservative president might be the only president who close down those open-ended conflicts. The opportunity is slipping away.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.