Brian M Downing
Russia opened three fronts in Ukraine. Drives on Kyiv and Kharkiv have failed and the troops are retreating and will soon redeploy to the remaining front in the east. The Russians been hit hard and need a few weeks to work in replacements and recover.
Putin may not grant them much rest though. He needs a victory. If the shift to the east doesn’t work out, the war will be a complete failure. The army will be paralyzed by morale and discipline troubles. The state too will be divided. Elements may turn on the former low-level KGB tough and self-proclaimed strategist who ordered the war. He will certainly turn on many of them.
Kiev will know in coming days where Moscow is sending its troops. Satellites, electronic surveillance, ground intelligence will track them from Belarus, giving sufficient time to prepare defenses and counterattacks. The cities of Izyum and Donetsk are likely destinations.
Izyum, Donetsk, and the eastern pocket
While attention was on Kiev and Kharkiv in the north and on Mariupol on the coast, Russian troops have taken Izyum. The town is 150 miles southeast of Kharkiv and 100 miles south of Russian territory. It has only 50,000 citizens but it straddles major roads leading south and southwest.
If Moscow sends significant forces to Izyum, it will be positioned for a pincer movement, driving south and linking up with Russian forces coming from Donetsk and the Black Sea coast. Signs suggest the early stages. With proper execution and good fortune, the campaign could trap several Ukrainian divisions or force them to scramble west and secure eastern Ukraine for Putin. Russian troops now have combat experience. Units that underperformed around Kiev may have coalesced into cohesive fighting outfits.
The eastern campaign must have attractions to elites in Moscow, eager as they are to see a shifting tide. Relocating troops to Izyum would require less time and logistical strain than to the Black Sea coast. The plan offers hope for a crushing victory that would bolster Russian morale, weaken Ukrainian resolve, and turn the tide. And it resonates with great WW2 battles around Stalingrad and Kursk. What Russian general doesn’t want to become the Zhukov of his day – or at least avoid becoming a Keitel or Rommel?
However, Russian forces are neither fresh nor motivated. The ones near Izyum are exposed to spoiling attacks from the west, cannot rely on stalled troops from the south to ensure encirclement, and know their logistics aren’t good. Every ten miles they might advance puts greater strain on supply lines and sets up more targets for Ukrainian drones and SOF teams.
Ukraine will know the Russian soldiers’ destinations before they do. Its forces enjoy interior lines of communication which provide swifter movement. They can reach destinations firstest with the mostest as an American general might’ve put it. The would-be encirclers could be encircled or simply worn down by confident forces with knowledge of the terrain, local support, and more and more weaponry coming in everyday.
Russian generals may be thinking of the encirclement and annihilation of the German Sixth Army at Stalingrad. Ukrainian counterparts know their forbears helped blunt the Reich’s attempted German encirclement of Kursk a few months later. The Reich never regained the initiative.
The view of a distant analyst on the offensive’s prospects might not coincide with that of an armchair strategist and obeisant generals in the Kremlin. Putin sees himself as heir to a great tradition of war leaders. Stalin broke the Third Reich at Kursk, 200 miles north of Izyum, and Peter the Great annihilated the Swedish army at Poltava, only 100 miles west of it. A bold move today, he may believe, will ensure his place in history alongside Stalin and Peter.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.