Brian M Downing
The war shifted three months ago from Kyiv to the Donbas. After months of fierce fighting there, the Russians made only limited progress, taking two cities and a handful of villages but enduring very high casualties along the way. The war is now shifting south to the land bridge region – Kherson in the west, Melitopol to east.
The Ukrainians have been preparing a counteroffensive there for some time. They hope to retake parts of the land bridge, isolate the Crimea peninsula, and deal Russia a serious setback. The Russians know this and are relocating troops and guns there. A major campaign is beginning.
Kherson
Early in the war Russian troops drove from Crimean positions and quickly seized Kherson and Melitopol. They then prepared to extend gains to Odessa and Transnistria, thereby land-locking Ukraine. However, Ukraine dug in west of Kherson and with domestic and imported antiship weaponry, drove the Russian fleet far offshore. An attack west to Odessa and beyond is no longer likely.
The view here since late May has been that Ukraine would counterattack near Kherson. (http://www.downingreports.com/severodonetsk-and-kherson/) That was delayed by intense fighting and high casualties in the Donbas but it’s underway now.
Ukrainian troops are within 15 kilometers of Kherson. Bridges across the Dnipro River, upon which Russian troops depend, have been badly damaged by HIMARS. Rapidly deployed pontoon bridges won’t last long. Partisans inside the city are killing Russian soldiers and officials. Russian positions there and west of the Dnipro look precarious if not untenable. At present it appears Moscow is trying to hold on but that may have to be rethought. The Kremlin is capable of recognizing futility and pulling back, albeit grudgingly. Kyiv and Snake Island show that.
Exploitation
Kherson will likely be liberated in coming months or isolated and turned into an isolated, beleaguered Russian outpost. Ukraine will cross the Dnipro at Kherson or north of it where the river is narrower, and drive east across the approaches to the Crimea, a Ukrainian oblast that Russia seized in 2014.
The campaign will be aided three ways. First, guerrilla forces have established themselves in the land bridge and now control swathes of it. They will harass Russian supplies and draw troops away from regular Ukrainian forces. Second, HIMARS and other long-range weapons will wreak havoc on depots in the land bridge as they have in the east. Third, Ukraine may launch a drive from Zaporozhzhia in the direction of Melitopol.
Russia is busily reinforcing the area, especially with artillery. Used prolifically to support offensives in the east, the big guns will try to stave off Ukrainian offensives in the south. Losses around Kherson and Melitopol would threaten Moscow’s hold on most of the land bridge and endanger the Crimea. Two key bridges to the peninsula have already been destroyed and a third one, the recently completed Kerch Strait bridge to the Russian mainland, is thought to be on Kyiv’s target list. The fleet has already fled Sebastopol for the safety of Russian ports well to the east.
Expulsion from the Kherson-Melitopol axis would cause consternation in Russia. The tide of war, which in recent weeks has shifted slightly toward Moscow, would once again favor Kyiv. Army purges would intensify. Key parts of the army and state, the rank and file, silenced by halting progress in the Donbas, will again question the war and its architect in the Kremlin.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.