Brian M Downing
Conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran has been underway for decades. It’s on the verge of becoming more intense as the US and Israel are siding with the Saudis. All three countries are legitimizing their position by claiming Iran is the leading supporter of terrorism and expanding its power in the region.
The recent murder of Saudi dissident and US resident Jamal Khashoggi has brought questioning of America’s relationship with Saudi Arabia. Rethinking claims regarding Iran is in order as Saudi allegations are shaped by sectarian passion and dynastic ambition.
Iran
Shortly after the 1979 revolution, Iran assassinated figures of the old regime and developed ties with Shia peoples. The aim was to strengthen the homeland and weaken its enemies, chiefly the US. Iran remained close to Israel as a source of military equipment, especially following the Iraqi invasion in 1980.
Lebanon was key to Iran’s strategy. Americans were kidnapped and sometimes killed. The IRGC helped with the bombings of embassies and a US-French military compound. Most significantly, the IRGC trained the militia component of Hisbollah which gave Iran a partner adjacent to its only major ally, Syria.
Over the last quarter century, Iran has endured terrorist attacks on figures involved in its nuclear program. Explosions have devastated a missile base and nuclear research facility. During the Syrian civil war, the IRGC trained Shia militias which helped turn the tide but engaged in massacring Sunni villagers.
The Syrian conflict shows Iran’s complicity in civilian deaths but also challenges the claim that Tehran’s power is spreading. Syria faces decades of Sunni hostility and reconstruction that will prevent it from being a significant ally. Hisbollah has taken very heavy casualties and owing to the presence of a western-backed force in eastern Syria, lines of communication between Iran and the Mediterranean are endangered.
The IRGC may be returning to striking abroad. An ASMLA principal who advocated Arab separatism from Tehran was killed in the Netherlands a year ago. An Iranian diplomat is accused of planning an attack on the MEK in France last summer. It might be noted though that the ASMLA and MEK have conducted bombings and assassinations inside Iran.
Saudi Arabia
Going back to the 70s, Riyadh supported many terrorist organizations – the PLO and Black September foremost among them. The kingdom has long provided the ideological grounding for terrorism and extended financial support as well.
The royal family purports to be adherents of Wahhabism, an austere sect within Sunni Islam. Whatever their personal religiousness might be, they wield Wahhabism in foreign policy, funding mosques and schools throughout the Middle East and in many other parts of the world too. The effort spreads a virulently anti-western and anti-modern message, albeit in a receptive population, and builds popular support for Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis support many armies and governments, which combined with a Wahhabi popular base, forms a foundation for authoritarian rule aligned with Riyadh. The Saudis undermined an elected government in Egypt by cutting subsidies, thereby crippling the economy, and then supported a coup that installed a military government – one with appreciable popular support.
Riyadh has spread Wahhabism deep into Yemen, chiefly in the Sunni south, so much so that the Houthi movement arose in the north to oppose it. This led to civil war which has unfortunately become a theater in the sectarian conflict. Iranian support to the Houthis is appreciable but is far less than what Saudi Arabia sends to the south.
The Saudis also fund Pakistani mosques and madrasas, whose Deobandi creed parallels Wahhabism. Many alumni go on to serve in various militant groups in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kashmir, and elsewhere. The Pakistani military enjoys considerable Saudi largesse. Indeed, several brigades have been stationed inside Saudi Arabia for decades and veterans find places in the kingdom’s security forces. Riyadh funded Pakistan’s nuclear program and Israeli intelligence worries of Pakistani nuclear weapons being deployed into the Middle East one day. Iran likely has the same concern.
Wahhabism is a firm basis of Islamist militancy. Without it, Islamists would be far fewer and less fervid. The fighters of al Qaeda, ISIL, and many other groups have absorbed the Wahhabi creed and taken it to a higher level – jihad, insurgency, and terrorism. Americans know that 15 of the 19 terrorists involved in al Qaeda’s 9/11 attacks were Saudis.
The kingdom’s wealthier subjects and even members of the royal family have supported al Qaeda and its brethren. The government, eager to build opposition to Shia power in Iraq, funded the Sunni insurgency there, which at times included AQ units. Support ended when ISIL became a regional threat but Afghan experts see Saudi Arabia supporting the ISIL’s affiliate, IS-Khorasan, with the hope of turning it against Iran.
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Both sides in the sectarian war have hands in terrorism but the Wahhabi creed and Saudi coffers are more closely tied to terrorism than Iran. Saudi Arabia is well ahead in the contest for regional power. Iran has only weakened allies in Syria and Lebanon. Its adversary has gathered Bahrain, Kuwait, and the Emirates into an anti-Shia bloc and wields great influence in Egypt and Pakistan, two countries with large armies.
Saudi Arabia is a rising power, Iran a declining one. Policymakers should ponder the desirability of a region dominated by a triumphant Wahhabi country led by Mohammad bin Salman, perhaps for the next half century, and not accept the claims of an ambitious prince and a murderous one at that.
Copyright 2018 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.