Will the war come home to Saudi Arabia?

Brian M Downing  Over the last three years Saudi Arabia has devoted considerable diplomatic and financial resources into dual efforts in the Middle East: thwarting democracy and opposing Iranian-Shia influence. Riyadh has financed militant groups, strategically manipulated fiscal and oil subsidies, and trained students in zealous militancy to serve in Read More …

Did counterinsurgency work in Iraq?

Brian M Downing Most accounts of the Second Iraq War (2003-11) attach great importance to counterinsurgency programs in ending the conflict there. The shift from using heavy firepower to winning hearts and minds is said to have created a “Sunni Awakening,” which changed the course of the war and brought Read More …

The Taliban spring offensive – what to watch for

Brian M Downing After the absence of meaningful discussions with the Taliban over the winter, the latter’s spring offensive has begun, chiefly with a wave on IED attacks but also a sizable ground attack in eastern Afghanistan.  The new fighting season comes amid reports of widespread war-weariness in the country Read More …

The Egyptian military and politics – and Saudi ambitions

Brian M Downing The Egyptian generals stand to come out of the present crisis more powerful than before, if they play it right. The old regime – Mubarak’s regime – comprised family cliques, business oligarchs, and the army elite. Two years ago, the army objected to Mubarak’s son as president-in-waiting Read More …

Islamist militancy in Mali and the Maghreb

Brian M Downing A rebellion in Mali that might have otherwise excited little interest commanded international attention when word came of its hardline Islamist nature and, more importantly, its ties to al Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM). In recent days, French, Malian, and other African troops have launched attacks into Read More …

A third force rises in eastern Afghanistan

 Brian M Downing  Encouraging signs in the Afghan war are not in good supply, but a recent small engagement in the eastern province of Ghazni may be one. Weary of the absence of schools, medical help, safe marketplaces, and pockmarked roads, local Pashtuns calling themselves the “National Uprising Movement” fought Read More …

The Saudi endgame for Iran 

Brian M Downing  Wars bring together states in common purpose and create myths of unity and friendship. Such myths are eagerly bought by the media and general publics alike. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, there is considerable squabbling that only becomes apparent when the war is over and long-standing differences arise, Read More …

Syria begins to break down

Brian M Downing  The violence in Syria has gone up markedly in the past two weeks, with massacres in at least two Sunni villages and sharp skirmishes between government forces and the rebel opposition in several cities. The United Nations has had to suspend its monitoring inside the country.  The Read More …

Iran and the US contend in Afghanistan

Brian M Downing Iran over the last decade has devoted considerable attention to getting US forces away from its borders.  In Iraq, it backed Shi’ite militias who formed an important part of the insurgency.  It later pressed Prime Minister Malicki to oust US forces, though he did allow US training Read More …