Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing A week ago, Putin’s fortunes were promising. Events in Syria have complicated things. Turkey’s proxy offensive has turned stalemate into rout and Russia faces manpower troubles in its far-flung system. Ten years ago, Assad’s hold seemed to be slipping away. Rebel armies, backed by Gulf princes, Turkey, Read More …
Brian M Downing Ties between Moscow and Damascus go back to the early Cold War. The Soviet Union sought to expand its power, and weaken the US’s, by backing secular states such as Syria and Egypt. It sold them military equipment, built infrastructure, and backed them in wars against Read More …
Brian M Downing Tensions over the Ukraine have brought firm responses from the United States and NATO in the form of troop deployments into Eastern Europe and threats of sanctions. Turkey is nominally in NATO but has opted to triangulate between Russia and the US. A Russian invasion of the Read More …
Brian M Downing Earlier this year Putin’s strategic position was quite good. The alliance with China was sound, Iran and Venezuela were defying American threats, and Turkey was moving away from NATO. Then came a political crisis in Belarus, a war in the Caucasus, and more recently an upheaval in Read More …
Brian M Downing Turkey has moved troops into Syria in recent years. It has done so mainly to intimidate Syrian Kurds, though Erdogan wins power prestige along the way. Most recently, he occupied a stretch of land in the northeast, after the US obligingly pulled back. Syria wants the US Read More …
Brian M Downing The optimism of 2011’s Arab Spring gave way long ago to civil war, jihadism, and disintegration. When Qaddafi met his end in a ditch, Libya became especially chaotic. The colonel governed through personal power and subservient local councils. When he went, the councils vanished and the country Read More …
Brian M Downing President Erdogan sent troops across the border into the Kurdish region of northeast Syria. He plans to settle a strip of land with Syrian Arab refugees. This, in addition to land in the northwest, would constitute another Turkish statelet in Syrian territory, if he gets away with Read More …
Brian M Downing Turkish President Erdogan has attacked the Kurds in Syria. The US position is confused. President Trump, noting his opposition to US efforts in the region, pulled US troops from the Syria-Turkey border. Turkish troops attacked shortly later – accompanied by the Free Syrian Army which was once Read More …
Brian M Downing King Salman of Saudi Arabia visited his counterpart in Russia last week – a further sign that events and alignments move quickly in the world. Such a visit was improbable two years ago when Putin sent his military to Syria against Saudi-backed rebels, and unthinkable thirty years Read More …
Brian M Downing Candidate Trump promised a tougher stance toward Iran. He deplored the P5+1 deal that required Iran to dismantle critical parts of its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. President Trump has altered many of his positions but remains hostile toward Iran. The position advanced here recently Read More …