Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Assad’s rule is over. Russia couldn’t come to his aid, Iran wouldn’t act on its own, and Hisbollah had been whittled down and decapitated. His troops looked around, saw no help, and called it quits. His family’s reign lasted 53 years. Once foreign aid vanished, it fell Read More …
Brian M Downing A week ago, Putin’s fortunes were promising. Events in Syria have complicated things. Turkey’s proxy offensive has turned stalemate into rout and Russia faces manpower troubles in its far-flung system. Ten years ago, Assad’s hold seemed to be slipping away. Rebel armies, backed by Gulf princes, Turkey, Read More …
Brian M Downing The US has retaliated against IRGC personnel and proxies after three GI deaths on a small remote base near the Jordanian-Syrian border. Retaliatory trikes have gone on for several days now and aim at getting Iran to back down. There’s little sign of it. Where is this Read More …
Brian M Downing Presidents inherit foreign policy burdens from their predecessors. LBJ was handed a deteriorating situation in Southeast Asia. Nixon got an unwinnable war and a public that wanted out of it. Bush the Younger bequeathed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to Obama and Trump. Both managed to muddle Read More …
Brian M Downing Late Thursday, President Biden ordered airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias in Syria. Early reports indicate the bombs killed seventeen troops. Washington said the strike was in response to rocket attacks by Iran-backed militias in Iraq. There was more at work than just that. It sent signals, as they Read More …
Brian M Downing Rapprochement or revenge? Iran wants sanctions relief but there’s presently a good deal of diplomatic folderol in the way. Iran wants the sanctions lifted immediately and will return to JCPOA enrichment levels later. The US wants to hold off lifting sanctions until Iran complies with the JCPOA. Read More …
Brian M Downing The new administration will face a welter of foreign policy problems. Some of them were caused by the present administration, others are of longer duration that can be placed at the feet of Bush the Younger and Barack Obama. One of them is Syria. The US has Read More …
Brian M Downing Eastern Syria has been the scene of intermittent skirmishes between American and American-backed forces on one hand and Syrian and Russian troops on the other. In the last month Russian vehicles bumped US counterparts, probably deliberately, injuring several GIs. There’ve been far more serious incidents. Two years Read More …
Brian M Downing National security bureaus worry. That’s what they’re paid to do and they look for threats day and night. Sometimes they overstate dangers, often they seize upon worst-case scenarios. Israeli security figures must be looking on events in the US and wondering if fiscal and political problems will Read More …
Brian M Downing The effort to oust the Assad government is all but over. The US and Turkey are still occupying swathes of the north and east, Idlib remains in rebel hands for now, but Damascus has clearly won. Nonetheless, the US has imposed stricter sanctions on Syria. Foreign countries Read More …