Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing History has not been kind to the Kurds. Living in what is now (or was) Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and Iran, they have fought to retain their language and customs while subjugated by Safavid, Ottoman, British, French, and other empires. The breakup of Syria and Iraq brings opportunity Read More …
Brian M Downing In recent weeks a new Triple Entente has emerged, one that solidifies ties among the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. The Entente’s stated purpose is to oppose terrorist organizations and Iranian influence. Clearly, however, the chief purpose is to weaken Iran and its Shia allies. Read More …
Brian M Downing The United States has entered into a portentous strategic partnership with Israel and a host of Sunni powers led by Saudi Arabia. The new Triple Entente was nominally formed to fight terrorism but actually to weaken Iranian-Shia influence from Lebanon and Syria to Iran. An initial move was Read More …
Brian M Downing Sectarian tensions are high, probably as high as they’ve been in many centuries. This stems in part from the Iranian Revolution of 1979 when the Sunni monarchies shuddered at Khomeini’s call for uprisings. More proximately, tensions stem from the Arab Spring when the same monarchs misinterpreted broad-based Read More …
Brian M Downing In 2008, late in the Bush administration, the Iraqi government ordered the US to withdraw its troops by the end of 2011. The Obama administration was not eager to argue. Nor could it have succeeded had it tried as US troops were fiercely disliked then. Facing a resurgent al Qaeda not Read More …
Brian M Downing President Trump ordered the Pentagon to present him with a more aggressive strategy for fighting ISIL, and the chiefs are about to offer options. One option calls for deploying more troops to Syria. The units would not be ground combat units, rather they would be primarily support troops to help Read More …
Brian M Downing The war in Afghanistan has dragged on for fifteen years now. The conflict has been complicated by the rise of ISIL in the region. Its Afghan franchise, ISIL-Khorasan Province, has established itself in eastern Afghanistan, where it has coalesced with and recruited from other jihadi groups, including Read More …
Negotiation and escalation in the Syrian civil war after Aleppo Brian M Downing The war in Syria is entering its sixth year. Various rebel groups, backed by Sunni powers, had the upper hand until Hisbollah, Iran, and Russia intervened on the government side. Over the last year government forces developed a tactic Read More …
Is conflict with Iran coming, again? Brian M Downing Throughout the campaign Donald Trump criticized his chief adversary for supporting the Iranian nuclear deal of 2015. The president-elect has backtracked on several matters, including prosecuting Hillary Clinton and building a physical wall along the Mexican border. Trump has not stepped Read More …
The coming ISIL dispersal – Iraq and Syria Brian M Downing In coming weeks, or months, ISIL’s prestigious holdings, Mosul and Raqqa, will have been retaken. ISIL will have only a handful of smaller towns and expanses of land – most of it wasteland. Several thousand ISIL fighters are in Read More …