Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Rulers often establish their power prestige through military victory. Alexander, Charlemagne, and Napoleon stand out. Communism might not have long endured in Russia had Stalin’s rule not been infused by defeating the Third Reich. The same is true of the House of Saud’s rule. Abdul Aziz vanquished Read More …
Brian M Downing Escalation in the Saudi-Iranian conflict reached a new high last week with aerial strikes on Saudi oil facilities. The US immediately blamed Iran and expectations were that punishing retaliation was coming. Thus far, however, the US has only imposed more sanctions on Iran and sent an air Read More …
Brian M Downing The Houthis claim of responsibility for the attacks on Saudi oil assets is in doubt. The distance, directionality, and complexity of the strike, which included sophisticated cruise missiles, point away from the fierce but technically-limited Yemeni movement. Washington and Riyadh are predictably blaming Tehran but other capitals Read More …
Brian M Downing Tensions in the Gulf are once again high. Last week the president was hanging fire and pondering talks with Iran. Saturday’s attacks on Saudi oil facilities have him locked and loaded. The attacks he unexpectedly halted last month might take place this week. Repeated tensions and troop Read More …
Brian M Downing Kenneth M Pollack – Armies of Sand: The Past, Present, and Future of Arab Military Effectiveness (New York: Oxford University Press, 2019) Shortly after ISIL routed the Iraqi army in 2014, I was told that Iraqi tanks had several reverse gears and one forward gear. The latter Read More …
Brian M Downing In coming years, a decade or two at most, domestic fiscal and political pressures will force a pullback from many of the US military bases in some eighty-five countries across the globe. For reasons elaborated upon earlier, Persian Gulf bases might be on the cut list. Oil Read More …
Brian M Downing Strategic alignments are usually based on compelling economic and military interests. But as argued previously, the US and Saudi Arabia are moving in different directions economically and militarily. The US is no longer buying crude from the Gulf and may not be able to afford to keep Read More …
Brian M Downing The decades-old partnership between the US and Saudi Arabia is showing strain. Relations will worsen over US oil exports, human rights concerns, antipathy toward the kingdom, support for Israel, fiscal problems, and changing priorities. Oil production The cornerstone of the US-Saudi partnership has long been oil. Read More …
Brian M Downing Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Israel are collaborating to gravely weaken or even fragment Iran. The view here is the alliance cannot last long, especially if it succeeds against Iran. A triumphant Mohammad bin Salman would likely turn on Israel. His Wahhabi creed is deeply hostile Read More …
Brian M Downing SDF troops supported by American, British, and French advisors have greatly reduced ISIL territory in Syria. Only a small portion of land near Deir Azour remains. ISIL’s positions in Iraq are negligible too. Most ISIL troops fight to the end, though recently, near Deir Azour, several dozen Read More …