Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing China has forged important ties with Russia over the last twenty years. The two countries’ military, financial, business, and foreign policy bureaus collaborate and benefit mutually. The guiding star is to weaken and subordinate the West, especially the United States. Xi sees Putin’s war on Ukraine as Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s war on Ukraine shows no sign of relenting. The Donbas campaign has brought only limited gains at great cost and even they are being lost to counterattacks. The war is moving toward stalemate. Artillery exchanges might soon predominate. The entire world is affected. With less Russian Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia invaded Ukraine with expectations of taking Kyiv and many other cities in a matter of days. It was overly-ambitious and showed little understanding of military realities. It was also a deviation from the Russian way of war: protracted intense artillery bombardments devastate everything ahead and open Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s Donbas offensive failed in a major encirclement operation from Izyum in the north and Donetsk in the south. Moscow fell back on a less ambitious campaign of slowly moving west from the center of the Donbas. This, it is hoped, will solidify control of the Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s war hasn’t gone well. Attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv have been driven back, and pincer movements from north and south in the Donbas pocket haven’t achieved much. More recently, however, Russia can rightly lay claim to two successes – Mariupol and the central Donbas pocket. What’s Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s effort to vanquish Ukraine has failed. The drive on Kyiv was driven back to Belarus and the one in the Donbas has stalled. Ukrainian forces are attritting invading forces with artillery, drones, antitank weapons, and MANPADs. Ukrainians wore down the Nazis in the 1940s and their Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia is headed for defeat in Ukraine. Sanctions are weakening the economy and even choking off arms production. The army is being attritted by a more disciplined and better equipped adversary. Money’s drying up and default looms. By year’s end Russia may be struggling to hold on Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s would-be blitzkrieg in Ukraine is now a stalemate. The war will continue as long as his troops are across the border. Russia’s economy and state will weaken and the army will become increasingly ineffectual. Defeat is at hand, though official admission isn’t. How much domestic opposition Read More …
Brian M Downing With the failure of the Kyiv and Donbas offensives, Putin is thought to be shifting to a long-term strategy. This could mean a nonstop military campaign or continuous fighting with intermittent formal or informal truces, though Ukraine is unlikely to grant any respite. What will the impact be Read More …
Brian M Downing In 1943, two years after invading the Soviet Union, the Third Reich lost the initiative after a defeat at Kursk. Today, Russia’s lost the initiative, paradoxically not far south of Kursk. The effort to take Kyiv ended in hasty retreat and the Donbas campaign has failed too. Read More …