Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Putin invaded Ukraine five months ago, confident his forces would swiftly take Kyiv and overwhelm the rest of the country in short order. When the blitzkrieg failed, he shifted to a war of attrition. The conflict is almost certainly to be long and arduous. Putin believes that Read More …
Brian M Downing The war shifted three months ago from Kyiv to the Donbas. After months of fierce fighting there, the Russians made only limited progress, taking two cities and a handful of villages but enduring very high casualties along the way. The war is now shifting south to the Read More …
Brian M Downing The Ukraine war may be accelerating Saudi Arabia’s detachment from the United States and realignment with Russia and China. The process, long followed here, has been underway for years through oil contracts, output quotas, arms sales, and diplomacy. The Russo-Ukraine war is making the process clear and Read More …
Brian M Downing Wars bring sweeping changes, most unforeseen. The First World War brought down three proud, venerable dynasties and began Europe’s decline and America’s ascendance, a process completed by the Second World War. The Russo-Ukraine war, the largest Europe has seen since 1945, will determine the future of Europe Read More …
Brian M Downing Eleven weeks ago Russia withdrew from Kyiv and focused on the east. Attempts at decisive breakthroughs failed and a slow, grinding war of attrition has emerged. Territorial changes have been small, casualties high. Neither side gives detailed casualty figures. The Russian army has shown marked improvement since Read More …
Brian M Downing The Black Sea Russia’s most successful efforts have been along the Black Sea and Crimean peninsula. Drives from bases in Crimea and supported by the navy drove swiftly west to Kherson and east to Melitopol. The navy famously took Snake Island on the first day. The small Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s Donbas offensive has failed to encircle Ukrainian units or make significant penetration. It’s made only limited gains around Lyman, Donetsk, and Severodonetsk. Ukrainian casualties, though, have been high – about a hundred dead per day on average and twice that amid exceptionally sharp fighting. Russian casualties Read More …
Brian M Downing The Great Patriotic War reverberates in the Russian soul. At times, it thunders. Official ceremonies see to that but memories of 20-27 million deaths do more. The lower estimate is 15 times the American losses. Family lore recounts experiences, hardships, and deaths. To paraphrase Faulkner, the past war Read More …
Brian M Downing A nation’s history, beliefs, traditions, and family lore are forged in wars and become its ordering principles. Britain became a dominant power through the Napoleonic Wars and colonial conflicts. The US was decisively changed by World War Two and later by Vietnam. World War Two, the Great Read More …
Brian M Downing China has forged important ties with Russia over the last twenty years. The two countries’ military, financial, business, and foreign policy bureaus collaborate and benefit mutually. The guiding star is to weaken and subordinate the West, especially the United States. Xi sees Putin’s war on Ukraine as Read More …