Obstacles to a Syrian peace agreement

The war in Syria is a stalemate and disaster. Civilian casualties are appalling, cities lie in ruins, and people flee the desolation by the tens of thousand. The former country is a training ground for jihadis and terrorists from Morocco to China. Preliminary talks are underway but any agreement is months away, at Read More …

Iran moves into Syria

Russia’s deployment of fighter aircraft and troops to Syria has overshadowed similar moves by Iran. The Islamic Republic, a longstanding Syrian ally, has sent about four thousand Shia fighters recruited from Afghanistan’s Hazara people and Iraq’s Arab majority, and reportedly a small contingent of its own ground troops as well. Read More …

Notes on the battle of Aleppo

Last month, under the weight of rebel pressure, the Syrian army pulled back from northern Syria. Since then Russia has deployed scores of attack aircraft and begun an air campaign, mostly on non-ISIL factions. Iran, too, has increased its support for a beleaguered ally. IRGC advisers have been in country for Read More …

The emerging Eurasian triad and its importance for democracy and world affairs

Not long ago, American power and beliefs appeared unchallenged in the world. The Soviet Union was gone, generals in developing nations were heading back to the barracks, and democracy was everywhere on the rise. We had, in the famous words, reached the end of history. Open economic and political systems Read More …

Analysis: Realpolitik in the opening with Iran

  Brian M Downing The dialog between the US and Iran has moved ahead. Opposition comes from important groups in both Tehran and Washington – as well as in a few Middle Eastern capitals. In Washington, the issue is decried as a sign of the administration’s naivety regarding world affairs Read More …

The price of oil and the future of Syria

Brian M Downing  The world, it would be fair to say, is in disarray. Most economies are sluggish, political paralysis and decay are everywhere, and appallingly brutal militant groups are on the march. Nonetheless, despite fighting near vital oil fields in the Gulf region, the price of oil – inordinately Read More …

The Ukraine crisis and Eastern European security

Brian M Downing Russia’s annexation of the Crimea has raised national security concerns in Eastern Europe, especially in Poland and the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Are they next on Vladimir Putin’s agenda of restoring the Great Russian empire? How reliable are the military forces of Eastern Europe? Read More …