Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Most observers think Putin cannot benefit from a long war. His economy is burdened by sanctions, the army has taken egregious casualties, and significant offensive operations are out of reach. However, Putin looks to Stalin not RAND and he may see promise where others do not. He’s convinced Read More …
Brian M Downing Ramzan Kadyrov, Putin vassal and Chechen dictator, is thought to be gravely ill. Several generals and oligarchs have died mysteriously since the war began, almost certainly at Putin’s orders. Kadirov has remained loyal to his Muscovite overlord so his decline may have physical causes rather than political Read More …
Brian M Downing Redrawing maps invites suspicion. Sometimes it invites conflict. China has long been claiming land and waters regarded parts of India, the Philippines, Japan, and Vietnam – historic enemies. And of course there’s Taiwan. Now, however, Chinese maps claim land heretofore recognized as part of Russia – an Read More …
Brian M Downing The Ukrainian offensive has been on for close to three month. Gains around Bakhmut are incremental. Those in the land bridge faced layers of minefields but are now making significant advances toward the coast. In recent days Ukraine has begun an air campaign on Russian territory. Hundreds Read More …
Brian M Downing After Prigozhin’s putsch last June, the over-under on his days wasn’t high. Wagering ended yesterday with an air disaster northwest of Moscow, probably a large bomb. As noted here right after the putsch, Stalin eventually got to Trotsky and Prigozhin wouldn’t last as long. But there are Read More …
Brian M Downing Ukraine’s offensive is proceeding more slowly than expected. Two months on, and there’s no breakthrough as around Kharkiv and Kherson last year. The slow going doesn’t stem from an improved Russian army. Training, logistics, and leadership remain inadequate by major power standards. It’s based on layers of Read More …
Brian M Downing It’s thought that Prigozhin’s rebellion damaged Putin and change may be coming in Moscow. Prigozhin certainly made Putin look foolhardy for supporting him so long, despite his sharp criticisms of the war and its generals. But Putin will only face serious trouble if one or more pillars Read More …
Brian M Downing Unsuccessful military revolts in Russia usually bring fierce retribution. Peter the Great tortured and killed hundreds of Streltsy after their 1698 uprising. Nicholas I did the same to the Decembrists after the Napoleonic wars. Stalin insisted Russian turncoats be repatriated and they were executed upon disembarkation from Read More …
Brian M Downing The view here has long been that the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private mercenary army, would cause trouble for Russia. The mercenary leader has been vocal in criticizing the regular army for its lack of aggressiveness and inadequate logistical support to his troops. After Russian strikes came Read More …
Brian M Downing The view here has long been that the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private mercenary army, would cause trouble for Russia. Private armies and elite forces create tensions with the regular army, as with the Waffen SS and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. They may become too independent of the Read More …