Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing This week’s assassination of the Russian ambassador to Turkey has highlighted the international complexities and domestic consequences of the Syrian civil war. The assassin, a young policeman, denounced Russia’s role in the battle of Aleppo and added praise for jihad, presumably against Russia and its regional partners. Read More …
Brian M Downing Once Aleppo is completely taken and reasonably secure, Assad and Putin will turn their attention to the last rebel city in the west, Idlib. Their tactics of intensive airstrikes followed by ground assaults are effective, if inhumane. The rebels have no protection from Russian aircraft. Their foreign Read More …
Oil and geopolitics in the Trump administration Brian M Downing President-elect Trump spoke confidently of better relations with Russia and blamed his adversary, former Secretary of State Clinton, for tensions. His National Security Advisor, retired three-star Michael Flynn, envisions a US partnership against Islamist militants. The choice for Secretary of Read More …
Negotiation and escalation in the Syrian civil war after Aleppo Brian M Downing The war in Syria is entering its sixth year. Various rebel groups, backed by Sunni powers, had the upper hand until Hisbollah, Iran, and Russia intervened on the government side. Over the last year government forces developed a tactic Read More …
Is conflict with Iran coming, again? Brian M Downing Throughout the campaign Donald Trump criticized his chief adversary for supporting the Iranian nuclear deal of 2015. The president-elect has backtracked on several matters, including prosecuting Hillary Clinton and building a physical wall along the Mexican border. Trump has not stepped Read More …
The Trump administration and the future of American-Russian relations Brian M Downing President-elect Trump has all but promised better relations with Russia. Throughout the acrimonious election campaign he criticized Hillary Clinton for damaging the ties between the two powers. He has even expressed optimism of working with President Putin on a Read More …
The potential for Russian escalation in Syria Brian M Downing Vladimir Putin’s intervention in Syria has thus far been cautious. Russian air support allowed Syrian and allied ground forces to regain territory around Damascus and Aleppo. When the Syrian president boasted of reconquering all of Syria, and as the ineffectiveness Read More …
Russia moves even closer to Iran Brian M Downing Upheaval in the Middle East has caused great concern in many capitals. Some states see opportunity. Saudi Arabia, for example, has brought Egypt and its formidable army into its sphere, and hopes to do the same with Sunni regions of Syria, Read More …
Is a Saudi-Russian rapprochement in the works? Brian M Downing Russian foreign minister Lavrov and his Saudi counterpart Adel Al-Jubeir met recently and called for cooperation against ISIL and better relations in general. This would represent a return to the portentous dealings that were put on hold when Russia deployed Read More …
Can the US and Russia cooperate in Syria? Brian M Downing Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov have met several times in recent weeks, giving rise to talk of the two powers cooperating in easing the war in Syria. Two issues are being discussed: cooperating in attacking Read More …