Leaving Afghanistan – and turning the tables

Brian M Downing Great powers have come and gone from Afghanistan. None have gotten what they expected. In the 19th century, Anglo-Russian rivalry centered in the Balkans and the Crimea, but Moscow’s expansion into Central Asia threatened British India, or at least seemed to. Officers from both empires parleyed with Read More …

Understanding the new war in Afghanistan, Part One

Brian M Downing Great powers have come and gone from Afghanistan. None have gotten what they expected. In the 19th century, Anglo-Russian rivalry centered in the Balkans and the Crimea, but Moscow’s expansion into Central Asia threatened British India, or at least seemed to. Officers from both empires parleyed with Read More …

Russia and the US vie in fragmented Syria 

Brian M Downing  The wars in Syria are less intense than in previous years. Battered ISIL forces are losing position after position and rebel forces are on the defensive in most areas. Foreign backers of all sides want the war to wind down. Syria has fragmented and is unlikely to Read More …

The price of wading back into Iraq 

Brian M Downing  When Barack Obama became president in 2009 he inherited the Bush administration’s wars. The new president had good reason to think he’d be entirely rid of the one in Iraq, After all, the Baghdad government had ordered all US out even before he took office. Obama could Read More …

Putin flexes his muscles in Cold War Two

Brian M Downing  Russia has begun a long anticipated military exercise with the code name “Zapad”, which means “West”. The size of the exercise is substantial, though estimates vary. Moscow officials say that about 14,000 Russian and Belarusian troops will be involved. Western counterparts, however, estimate that the two states Read More …

Netanyahu sets sights on Hisbollah and Iran 

Brian M Downing Israeli spokesmen are pointing out unacceptable actions by Hisbollah and IRGC. Iran is building underground missile plants in Lebanon, digging tunnels from southern Lebanon into Galilee, and assembling troops near the Syrian-Israeli border, thereby threatening Israel with a “two-front war”. How Shia troops propping up Assad pose Read More …

The United States and Israel take aim at detente in the Gulf

Brian M Downing  The march toward war in the Gulf has slowed in recent weeks. The Saudis, dispirited by stalemate in Yemen, and Iran, concerned by greater Sunni wealth and allies, may soon enter into talks. Both sides see the potential for mutual ruin with little to gain, except for Read More …

Obstacles to Saudi-Iranian detente  

Brian M Downing  Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran began to deteriorate with the Khomeini revolution (1979) and worsened in recent years as Tehran’s nuclear program advanced. A proxy war has been underway in Yemen for several years and two more loom in Syria and Iraq. Armies trained more diligently, Read More …

The United States confronts Pakistan, at last

Brian M Downing  Last week President Trump outlined his Afghanistan policy. There was little new in it. More GIs, more money. That’s been going on since the Obama administration. What was new in the speech was the blunt criticism of Pakistan – a supposed ally but a duplicitous one that Read More …

Jihadism in Afghanistan and Central Asia

Brian M Downing  The Afghan conflict has burdened the United States since 2001, at least. Troops and money poured in though with little success in building stability. President Trump was inclined to pull out of what seemed a failed business venture but key advisors, mostly generals, dissuaded him. The US Read More …