Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Saudi Arabia and Russia have failed to agree on production cuts to counter the effect of COVID-19 on oil markets. Putin wanted low prices to cripple the American shale oil industry which is barely profitable and deep in hock. MBS, on the other hand, wanted higher prices Read More …
Brian M Downing Turkey has moved troops into Syria in recent years. It has done so mainly to intimidate Syrian Kurds, though Erdogan wins power prestige along the way. Most recently, he occupied a stretch of land in the northeast, after the US obligingly pulled back. Syria wants the US Read More …
Brian M Downing Mentioning oil in world politics will immediately bring up the oil shock of 1973. The Saudis and other Gulf states showed their opposition to US support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War, when the US sent anti-tank missiles and helped the IDF defeat Arab air defenses. Read More …
Brian M Downing Israel is more secure now than at any time since its founding. Regional enemies have either signed peace agreements (Egypt, Jordan), all but disintegrated from internal divisions (Syria, Libya, Iraq), or aligned with it against Iran (Saudi Arabia). Furthermore, Jerusalem has skillfully built ties with Moscow. Without Read More …
Brian M Downing Relations between Israel and Russia have shifted, even reversed, more than once since the former’s inception in 1948. This isn’t surprising given the region’s volatility and Moscow’s power vicissitudes. The Soviet Union, in keeping with its policy of weakening Western powers, supported Jewish settlers in the 1948 Read More …
Brian M Downing American security interests in the Middle East are declining, yet US troop levels there are rising. By mid-century the region will not be as important to world energy supplies or rivalries with Russia and China. Israel faces no coherent enemies. The Arab world will be plagued by Read More …
Brian M Downing The US is pulling out of Syria. Damascus, backed by Moscow, welcomed the vacuum and moved troops into Kurdish areas to counter the Turkish incursion. The view here has long been that the US presence in eastern Syria was poorly thought out and bound to end badly. Read More …
Brian M Downing Venezuela is important to the Trump administration, at least occasionally. There is no discernible strategy on what to do and focus comes and goes, as with many things. Focus seems to have lessened significantly since the US called for Maduro’s ouster, set up food distribution points on Read More …
Brian M Downing Over the last week Iran has been accused of attacking more oil tankers near its shores. It responded to the deepening tensions by announcing intentions to exceed uranium-enrichment limits set by the JCPOA – an agreement the US walked away from long ago. The US is blaming Read More …
Brian M Downing The Trump foreign policy team came to power amid growing competition between the US and a Sino-Russian alignment. That alignment is determined to reduce American power in the world and replace it with their own. The competition has been underway since China emerged as an economic power Read More …