Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Protests are jarring many countries. In recent days, after an election gave a suspicious win to a longstanding ruler, Belarus is now in the rapids. Once part of the Soviet Union, and situated between Russia and the EU (geographically and geopolitically), Belarus is closely watched by western Read More …
Brian M Downing The US effort to weaken Iran is failing. It has alienated longstanding allies, strengthened authoritarian rule in Tehran, and shown the limits of American power. The US may now be holding secret talks with Iran that will allow the US to climb down from escalation. If so, Read More …
Brian M Downing As noted in previous articles, political, fiscal, and generational dynamics may one day undermine the US’s long-standing reliability as a strategic partner. Worries must be strong in Eastern Europe. Countries that were once part of the Soviet Union, such as the Baltic states, might be especially concerned Read More …
Brian M Downing President Trump has worried major NATO allies by his ill treatment of their leaders, general inattentiveness, and strange apologies for Russian actions. They wonder if his policies are based on sage counsel or business hopes after leaving office. Last week they were dismayed by his order to Read More …
Brian M Downing Reports of Russian bounties to Taliban fighters for killing GIs have created a storm. The debate concerns how reliable the intelligence is and whether or not the president was briefed on the matter and if so, what if anything did he do. The issue underscores the president’s Read More …
Brian M Downing An important development in the Libyan conflict took place this week. Russia withdrew its Wagner mercenaries from the western region and deployed fighter jets to the east. The interpretation here is that Putin and Erdogan have struck a bargain: the west remains under the Tripoli government under Read More …
Brian M Downing Libya is divided between a western region based in Tripoli and an east based in Benghazi. Each side has considerable foreign support – diplomatic and military. Last year the warlord of eastern Libya, Khalifa Haftar, launched an offensive to take the western capital, Tripoli. The capital’s defenders, Read More …
Brian M Downing Over the last century the United States has played crucial roles in world politics. In World War Two the US supplied the arms, oil, troops, and leadership that defeated Imperial Japan and the Third Reich. America’s respect and relative power in the world reached apogee in 1945. Read More …
Brian M Downing Moscow has had a number of disappointments in the Middle East over the years. During the Cold War it backed Arab states against Israel and its western backers and even goaded them into starting wars. The disastrous results were showcases of second-rate Soviet hardware and corrupt, inept Read More …
Brian M Downing Saudi Arabia and Russia have failed to agree on production cuts to counter the effect of COVID-19 on oil markets. Putin wanted low prices to cripple the American shale oil industry which is barely profitable and deep in hock. MBS, on the other hand, wanted higher prices Read More …