Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Russia is headed for defeat in Ukraine. Sanctions are weakening the economy and even choking off arms production. The army is being attritted by a more disciplined and better equipped adversary. Money’s drying up and default looms. By year’s end Russia may be struggling to hold on Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s would-be blitzkrieg in Ukraine is now a stalemate. The war will continue as long as his troops are across the border. Russia’s economy and state will weaken and the army will become increasingly ineffectual. Defeat is at hand, though official admission isn’t. How much domestic opposition Read More …
Brian M Downing In 1943, two years after invading the Soviet Union, the Third Reich lost the initiative after a defeat at Kursk. Today, Russia’s lost the initiative, paradoxically not far south of Kursk. The effort to take Kyiv ended in hasty retreat and the Donbas campaign has failed too. Read More …
Brian M Downing Every year Moscow commemorates May 9th. That’s the day in 1945 that Germany surrendered after what Russians call the Great Patriotic War. The West calls the surrender VE Day and it was once stamped on every calendar along with VJ Day and December 7th. The war’s memory Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia failed to reach Kyiv in its opening offensive in late February. It shifted to the Donbas two weeks ago, seeking to trap or grind down Ukrainian forces there. That isn’t faring any better. In fact, it’s gained less ground. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian counteroffensive near Kharkiv is Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s Ukraine war will end in humiliating defeat. The severity and day are uncertain but the cause isn’t. Putin’s army, from top to bottom, has performed abysmally – worse than imaginable for a country claiming major power status. The Russian leadership, or key parts of it, will Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s Donbas offensive is in its tenth day. It’s neither taken significant land nor worn down Ukrainian resolve. Russia has lost the initiative, and maybe more. Severe casualties aside, Putin’s military won’t be the same. The army is the strongest pillar of any autocracy and the one Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia was driven out of the north and needs success in the Donbas to turn the tide. Failure would bring egregious military and political problems from frontline BTGs to the Kremlin inner sanctum. The need for victory can lead to incautious, even desperate moves and self-deception throughout Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s war, now in its eighth week, continues to go badly for him. The army is suffering heavy casualties and confusion plagues the chain of command. Sanctions will bring depression by fall and the army may be paralyzed by morale, discipline, and supply problems before that. Many Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia opened three fronts in Ukraine. Drives on Kyiv and Kharkiv have failed and the troops are retreating and will soon redeploy to the remaining front in the east. The Russians been hit hard and need a few weeks to work in replacements and recover. Putin may Read More …