Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The war in Afghanistan has dragged on for fifteen years now. The conflict has been complicated by the rise of ISIL in the region. Its Afghan franchise, ISIL-Khorasan Province, has established itself in eastern Afghanistan, where it has coalesced with and recruited from other jihadi groups, including Read More …
Brian M Downing Once Aleppo is completely taken and reasonably secure, Assad and Putin will turn their attention to the last rebel city in the west, Idlib. Their tactics of intensive airstrikes followed by ground assaults are effective, if inhumane. The rebels have no protection from Russian aircraft. Their foreign Read More …
Negotiation and escalation in the Syrian civil war after Aleppo Brian M Downing The war in Syria is entering its sixth year. Various rebel groups, backed by Sunni powers, had the upper hand until Hisbollah, Iran, and Russia intervened on the government side. Over the last year government forces developed a tactic Read More …
The coming ISIL dispersal – Iraq and Syria Brian M Downing In coming weeks, or months, ISIL’s prestigious holdings, Mosul and Raqqa, will have been retaken. ISIL will have only a handful of smaller towns and expanses of land – most of it wasteland. Several thousand ISIL fighters are in Read More …
Russia looks for opportunities in Iraq Brian M Downing Russia and the United States are engaged in Cold War Two – a global contest for influence, trade, military bases, and power. Russia, in conjunction with China, want to establish hegemony in the Eurasian land mass, including the Middle East. Read More …
Kurdistan after the liberation of Mosul Brian M Downing Iraqi troops will probably retake Mosul in coming weeks or months. The battle will be fierce, the casualties, both civilian and military, will be high. Afterwards, old political conflicts that were put aside after the 2014 ISIL offensive will reemerge and Read More …
The coming battle for Raqqa – and the future of Iraq and Syria Brian M Downing Iraqi and Kurdish troops are on the outskirts of Mosul, ISIL’s prized holding in Iraq. The battle will be long and costly and will entail a slew of political complications involving various foreign powers, especially the Read More …
Apocalypse soon in the battle of Mosul? Brian M Downing The fight for Mosul is underway. Surrounding villages have fallen, ISIL has launched spoiling attacks, Iraqi special forces are nearing the city itself. ISIL fighters have the advantage in combat effectiveness and in fighting from defensive positions in urban areas, Read More …
The al Nusrah Front breaks from al Qaeda – and aligns with what? Brian M Downing The al Nusrah Front has long been one of the most formidable rebel groups in Syrian civil war. Its Salafi creed establishes cohesion in combat units, respect for its chain of command, and an effective Read More …
Can the US and Russia cooperate in Syria? Brian M Downing Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov have met several times in recent weeks, giving rise to talk of the two powers cooperating in easing the war in Syria. Two issues are being discussed: cooperating in attacking Read More …