Israel and Iran head for war in Syria

Brian M Downing  Intermittently over the last ten years, Israel, perhaps with US and Saudi assistance, seemed on the verge of attacking Iranian nuclear sites. More recently, and despite an internationally-supported nuclear deal, Israel and Iran are at daggers drawn over Syria. Israel has long been attacking Syrian military depots Read More …

Opportunity and entrenchment in the Syrian-Turkish clash

Brian M Downing  Turkey sat on the sidelines during most of the Syrian Civil War. President Erdogan looked on as ISIL mauled the Kurds of Syria, whom he deems supportive of Kurdish militants in his country’s southeast. To his dismay but to the world’s delight, the Kurds, with American help, Read More …

Sources of instability in the Sino-Russian alignment

Brian M Downing  China and Russia have put aside past conflicts and begun a portentous aligment. Combined, they have formidable economic and military power – enough to control most of the Eurasian land mass. Such control has been a dream of geostrategists since Halford Mackinder outlined his “heartland” thesis a Read More …

Leaving Afghanistan – and turning the tables

Brian M Downing Great powers have come and gone from Afghanistan. None have gotten what they expected. In the 19th century, Anglo-Russian rivalry centered in the Balkans and the Crimea, but Moscow’s expansion into Central Asia threatened British India, or at least seemed to. Officers from both empires parleyed with Read More …

Understanding the new war in Afghanistan, Part Two

The new game China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan are gaining from American powerlessness in the Middle East, East Asia, and Afghanistan. The superpower’s limitations and the entente’s influence are being made clear around the world. The entente is positioned to gain even more as the Afghan quagmire drags on. The Read More …

The new prince confronts Iran (with other people’s armies)

Brian M Downing  Mohammad bin Salman is solidifying his position as future king of Saudi Arabia. The aged king has ceded authority to him and may step down in coming months. At home, Mohammad is directing a sweeping industrialization program and a modest reform effort. In world affairs, he’s determined Read More …

The price of wading back into Iraq 

Brian M Downing  When Barack Obama became president in 2009 he inherited the Bush administration’s wars. The new president had good reason to think he’d be entirely rid of the one in Iraq, After all, the Baghdad government had ordered all US out even before he took office. Obama could Read More …

Counter-terrorism and escalation in Africa

Brian M Downing  In early October, four GIs were killed in action while serving in Niger, a landlocked desert country in West Africa. Most Americans were surprised. They were unaware of a US presence in that country and would be hard pressed to find it on a map. The same Read More …

The Kurds face betrayal once again

Brian M Downing After the end of World War One and the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, the Kurds expected the statesmen at Versailles to recognize their right to self-determination. An independent Kurdish state appeared within reach. The British, French, Turks, and Persians had other ideas. Partition and repression followed. Read More …

Kurdistan weighs independence 

Brian M Downing  The people of the Kurdish region in northeastern Iraq voted on independence this Monday. Turnout was high and authorities report a 92% yes vote. The Kurdish government will decide whether to formally declare independence or remain an autonomous part of Iraq – a highly autonomous part. The Read More …