Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing An excerpt from a 2014 article http://www.downingreports.com/cohesion-and-disintegration-in-iraqs-armies/ The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria has demonstrated remarkable fighting ability in both Syria and Iraq. Despite its small size – no more than 18,000 – it put the better equipped and much larger Iraqi military into flight in Read More …
Brian M Downing The US has retaliated against IRGC personnel and proxies after three GI deaths on a small remote base near the Jordanian-Syrian border. Retaliatory trikes have gone on for several days now and aim at getting Iran to back down. There’s little sign of it. Where is this Read More …
Brian M Downing IS-K, heretofore a small network of Pakistani Pashtuns and a miscellany of foreign jihadis, is now taking in former Afghan army soldiers. The view here has been that tens of thousands of ANA veterans are eager to regain the honor they lost in the ignominious collapse last Read More …
Brian M Downing Following successes in Syria and Iraq in 2014, ISIL set up cells in Afghanistan comprising mostly Pakistani Taliban. They called themselves the “Islamist State-Khorasan” (IS-K), using an ancient name for the Central Asian expanse with mythic meaning in apocalyptic writings. It’s in Khorasan that jihadis will gather, Read More …
Brian M Downing As more districts fall concerns mount as to what will become of the country. One of more alarming claims, one used in calls for the US to reconsider withdrawal, is that it will become a sanctuary for al Qaeda and ISIL. The view here has long been Read More …
Brian M Downing Twenty years ago, only specialists had heard of al Qaeda. Since then, it has grown in numbers, inspired rivals, aligned with separatists, and spread into Nigeria, the Maghreb, Sinai, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, East Africa, South Asia, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. Both AQ and ISIL have havens Read More …
Brian M Downing While attention has focused on civil war and jihadism in the Middle East, Islamist militants have been striking in Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The attacks are becoming bolder and more lethal. Government forces are not up to the task of taking them on. Indeed, outposts Read More …
Brian M Downing Overt Iranian intervention? Tehran is deeply concerned that events in Iraq will lead to Saudi and American gains along its western border, parts of which have low-level insurgencies. Its only major military ally in the region, Syria, has come out on top in the civil war but Read More …
Brian M Downing Abu Bakr al Baghdadi hoped to conquer and lead a new Islamist empire. His armies once alarmed capitals in and out of the region. However, western-backed forces ground them down and late last week American special forces killed him. What does his death mean for the future Read More …
Brian M Downing In recent years American policies in the Middle East have met with mixed success. Key allies are reasonably secure and arms sales are on the rise. However, intermittent efforts to liberalize the region have brought more chaos than democracy, in large part because most Arab rulers oppose Read More …