Analysis: The battle of Iraq – in the presidential campaign 

The 2016 election is a year and a quarter away. The issues are immigration, income inequality, shrinking opportunity, email accounts, and thoughtless comments. The Iraq War surfaced several weeks ago in an interview with then-front runner Jeb Bush in which he said that knowing what he knows now, he still thinks the war Read More …

Prospects for liberalization in Iran

The recent nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 brings hope for political reform in Iran. This is especially so among the middle classes of Tehran and other urban areas. The impending end to sanctions by much of the world, they believe, will bring greater prosperity and an easing of Read More …

Analysis: Realpolitik in the opening with Iran

  Brian M Downing The dialog between the US and Iran has moved ahead. Opposition comes from important groups in both Tehran and Washington – as well as in a few Middle Eastern capitals. In Washington, the issue is decried as a sign of the administration’s naivety regarding world affairs Read More …

Analysis: Iranian power on the rise?

Brian M Downing As the Iranian nuclear talks neared preliminary agreement, and as the Houthis drove into southern Yemen, world leaders and commentators warned that Iran is on the rise in the Middle East. This, they continued, had to be stopped by imposing tougher sanctions and opposing the Houthis, perhaps Read More …

The ISIL War and the battle of Sinjar

Brian M Downing Islamist State forces have been blunted since their offensive into Iraq last summer. ISIL troops enjoy a considerable qualitative edge over the various Iraqi forces arrayed in front of them but are badly outnumbered by Iraqi army, Kurdish troops, Shia militias, and Sunni tribal fighters. ISIL has Read More …

The view from Tehran

Brian M Downing  The Iranian nuclear talks ended without agreement, except to extend the deadline on negotiations until next July. Over the next few months, world events may change the positions of the powers involved. The pause also offers time to better understand each power’s viewpoint.  Each country, including Iran, Read More …

Kurdistan stays its hand, for now

Brian M Downing Kurdistan will stay within an Iraqi political framework, at least for now. After years of conflict, including being on the brink of war, Iraq and Kurdistan have signed an agreement for sharing oil revenues. The deal allows the Kurds to export their oil and gives them a Read More …