Weakening China – by leaving Afghanistan 

Brian M Downing  The Trump administration is concerned about China’s ascendance in world affairs, often at US expense. Its economy will surpass the US’s in a decade or so. Military spending has increased, especially in naval and air might. China’s territorial claims and fortified artificial islands are well known. Beijing’s Read More …

Syria moves to retake Deraa and the south

Brian M Downing  The Syrian civil war appears to be moving into a final chapter, though the region’s conflicts are prone to sudden addendums. Government forces, with the aid of Russian airpower and Iranian-trained militias, are moving on Idlib in the north and Deraa in the south. The latter campaign Read More …

Is Detente II a good idea for the US?

Brian M Downing  The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 portended favorably for world peace, at least to some. Others saw the source of Russian-Soviet actions based not in communist ideology but rather in a national security ideology and string of ambitious rulers, both of which predate Marx and Read More …

Jerusalem, Gaza, and stability in the anti-Iran Entente

Brian M Downing  This week the US opened its embassy in Jerusalem, moving it from Tel Aviv as President Trump promised. The relocation signaled the president’s disinterest in a two-state solution and support for the Israeli Right’s assimilation of the West Bank. Along the Gaza Strip in the west, Palestinian Read More …

Outcome scenarios in the sectarian wars: Saudi Arabia triumphant 

Brian M Downing  The US is walking away from the JCPOA and sectarian conflict is poised to spread, intensify, and probably go on for years. The US and Israel are foursquare on the Sunni side. Iran and Saudi Arabia have been at odds since Khomeini came to power in 1979 Read More …

Netanyahu drives a wedge between Moscow and Tehran

Brian M Downing  Critical events related to Middle Eastern conflicts took place last week. Iran apparently fired missiles into the Golan Heights and Israel struck back on numerous Iranian positions in Syria. The US announced it’s leaving the JCPOA and new sanctions on the Islamic Republic are pending. Iran responded Read More …

How we got into Syria (and where we’re going)

Brian M Downing  The Pentagon admits to about 2,000 troops in Syria, though it declines to give a precise number. The GIs range along the northern border with Turkey and extend down the eastern bank of the Euphrates. They serve as trainers, advisors, air support spotters, logistics personnel, artillery support, Read More …

Another fighting season arrives in Afghanistan

Brian M Downing  The war in Afghanistan goes on and warmer weather brings a new Taliban campaign. The Islamist group was driven from most of the country in 2001-02 but found safe haven in Pakistan and reconstituted itself as an insurgency. Irremediable corruption in Afghan government and society has helped Read More …

Missile strikes and deterrence in the Levant

Brian M Downing  The US has twice fired missiles into Syria in retaliation for using chemical weapons. A year ago, a unilateral US barrage of 59 ship-launched cruise missiles struck a military airbase. Last Friday, the US, Britain, and France fired twice that number, from both ships and aircraft, into Read More …