Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Tensions, sometimes very ominous ones, come and go in the Middle East. Since the killing of General Soleimani and Iran’s subsequent missile strike in Iraq, tensions have eased, at least for now. Iran’s response was fiery missile launches into dark skies and claims of high American casualties. Read More …
Brian M Downing Iran will strike back hard after Suleimani’s assassination. To Iranians, the event is roughly comparable to the 9/11 attacks on the US. So popular was the IRGC general that If the mullahs and generals do not demonstrate resoluteness in coming days or weeks, they will face popular Read More …
Brian M Downing An American drone strike has killed Qassem Soleimani, the renowned head of the IRGC’s foreign operations. Over the last decade he patched together dozens of Syrian, Iraqi, and international-Shia militias. They fought US troops in the years after the 2003 invasion, bolstered faltering Syrian forces, fought alongside, Read More …
Brian M Downing The US embassy in Baghdad was attacked and besieged by crowds angered by recent US airstrikes on Iran-backed militias. Those strikes came just after one such militia rocketed a base containing US personnel, killing an American contractor. The siege appears to be lifting but the Saudi-Iranian conflict, Read More …
Brian M Downing Oil and power The international interest in Libya is of course mainly about oil, but not simply for the commodity on the world market. Oil and gas can be used to expand power. Russia uses its hydrocarbons to gain influence in Europe and corral former SSRs that Read More …
Brian M Downing Overt Iranian intervention? Tehran is deeply concerned that events in Iraq will lead to Saudi and American gains along its western border, parts of which have low-level insurgencies. Its only major military ally in the region, Syria, has come out on top in the civil war but Read More …
Brian M Downing Unrest is spreading across many parts of the world. The most violent case might be Iraq where a large youth population is calling for reforms and enduring high casualties for it. Prominent in their demands is a call for the end of Iranian meddling in the country’s Read More …
Brian M Downing Escalation in the Saudi-Iranian conflict reached a new high last week with aerial strikes on Saudi oil facilities. The US immediately blamed Iran and expectations were that punishing retaliation was coming. Thus far, however, the US has only imposed more sanctions on Iran and sent an air Read More …
Brian M Downing The Houthis claim of responsibility for the attacks on Saudi oil assets is in doubt. The distance, directionality, and complexity of the strike, which included sophisticated cruise missiles, point away from the fierce but technically-limited Yemeni movement. Washington and Riyadh are predictably blaming Tehran but other capitals Read More …
Brian M Downing Tensions in the Gulf are once again high. Last week the president was hanging fire and pondering talks with Iran. Saturday’s attacks on Saudi oil facilities have him locked and loaded. The attacks he unexpectedly halted last month might take place this week. Repeated tensions and troop Read More …