Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Rapprochement or revenge? Iran wants sanctions relief but there’s presently a good deal of diplomatic folderol in the way. Iran wants the sanctions lifted immediately and will return to JCPOA enrichment levels later. The US wants to hold off lifting sanctions until Iran complies with the JCPOA. Read More …
Brian M Downing Donald Trump came to office four years ago determined to gravely weaken Iran. He promptly withdrew from the JCPOA and imposed harsh sanctions. At times airstrikes seemed imminent. His foreign policy, however, was erratic, incoherent, and unsuccessful, whether toward Iran, Venezuela, N Korea, or even China. All Read More …
Brian M Downing Long game Mohammed bin Salman may opt to slow down the Yemen war, use his and allies’ clout in Washington, and hope to change Biden’s position – or wait him out and hope for a more sympathetic president in a few years. No war, no peace. Support Read More …
Brian M Downing The mullahs from the IRGC perspective There are few young ayatollahs (or popes for that matter). The accreditation process is long and arduous and unrelated to governing a large country in parlous times. In terms of age, they are like the geriatric politburo of the Soviet Read More …
Brian M Downing The health of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader, has been in question for years. Wounded in an MEK bombing, treated for cancer, the 81-year-old cleric was recently said to be gravely ill and choosing a successor. But death isn’t at hand, though piety and Read More …
Brian M Downing Biden’s foreign policy team has a lot of work to do. Its predecessors relied on the counsel of inexperienced loyalists and relatives, slighted long-standing allies, and acted arbitrarily and inconsistently. Iran will be important. The Trump administration walked away from the JCPOA and climbed the escalation tree. Read More …
Brian M Downing Rumors of war with Iran have been circulating for years. Bush the Younger and the neoconservatives branded the Islamic Republic a key part of the Axis of Evil, called for regime change, but got bogged down in Iraq. The Obama administration, too, seemed on the brink of Read More …
Brian M Downing The monarchies in opposition The Saudi monarchy adamantly opposed creation of a Jewish state. Abdul Aziz made that clear to FDR when they met on a US warship in the Suez Canal back in early 1945. Nonetheless, the US recognized the new state soon after it Read More …
Brian M Downing National security bureaus worry. That’s what they’re paid to do and they look for threats day and night. Sometimes they overstate dangers, often they seize upon worst-case scenarios. Israeli security figures must be looking on events in the US and wondering if fiscal and political problems will Read More …
Brian M Downing The US effort to weaken Iran is failing. It has alienated longstanding allies, strengthened authoritarian rule in Tehran, and shown the limits of American power. The US may now be holding secret talks with Iran that will allow the US to climb down from escalation. If so, Read More …