The prince and president talk arms – and Sunnistan

Brian M Downing  Mohammed bin Salman, heir apparent and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, is in Washington this week. Discussions will bear on the geopolitics of the Middle East and the political economy of the United States. The prince brought his checkbook. High on the agenda is dealing with Read More …

Why is Netanyahu looking on?

Brian  M Downing  The Syrian war drags on, and so do the atrocities. Rebel fighters are not armies of right and virtue by any means but that cannot be used to look past the government side’s deliberate and systematic attacks on civilians. Syrian and Russian aircraft have incorporated heavy bombing Read More …

The Syrian war and international norms

Brian M Downing The Syrian civil war is in its eighth year. The government presently has the upper hand. It’s taken back a good deal of territory and all major cities save one, Idlib. That city is now under attack by Russian and Syrian aircraft in preparation for a ground Read More …

Is Putin increasing the stakes in Syria?

Brian M Downing  Russian leader Vladimir Putin recently deployed more fighter aircraft to the Latakia airbase in western Syria –  two SU-57s. The move comes close on the heels of two setbacks  – Israel’s punishing strike on Syria’s Russian-made and much ballyhooed air defense system, and the US-SDF blunting of Read More …

Israel and Iran head for war in Syria

Brian M Downing  Intermittently over the last ten years, Israel, perhaps with US and Saudi assistance, seemed on the verge of attacking Iranian nuclear sites. More recently, and despite an internationally-supported nuclear deal, Israel and Iran are at daggers drawn over Syria. Israel has long been attacking Syrian military depots Read More …

Opportunity and entrenchment in the Syrian-Turkish clash

Brian M Downing  Turkey sat on the sidelines during most of the Syrian Civil War. President Erdogan looked on as ISIL mauled the Kurds of Syria, whom he deems supportive of Kurdish militants in his country’s southeast. To his dismay but to the world’s delight, the Kurds, with American help, Read More …

The rise of China – strategic allies I: N Korea, Pakistan, and Iran

Brian M Downing  States rise to global power in partnership with other countries. Britain, for example, rose to preeminence with allies that weakened enemies on the continent, and with local notables on the subcontinent. American preeminence came after the Second World War with a slew of alliances stretching from Western Read More …

The emerging struggle for the Persian Gulf, Part II

Brian M Downing (Part I) Common ground Political and economic forces will push the Gulf states closer to Russia and China. The Gulf states and Russia want to keep oil prices as high as possible, and indeed they have already collaborated on production limits that have helped raise world prices Read More …

The Iranian protests and the regional conflict  

Brian M Downing  Protests in Iran are in their fifth day and so far 14 people have been killed. The demonstrations changed from bread and butter issues to calls for an end to theocracy. The lifting of sanctions, partial though it was, brought expectations of more jobs, higher incomes, and Read More …

The emerging struggle for the Persian Gulf, Part I

Brian M Downing  The United States has naval and air force bases across the Gulf – in Kuwait, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and to an uncertain extent, Saudi Arabia. Iran was once a staunch US ally but after the Shah’s downfall and failure at rapprochement, it’s now firmly aligned Read More …